Tools and methodologies for decision making on water resources systems management: Application on the Jucar and Tajo rivers (Spanish text)

In view of water significance in the society, and also the problems that arise frequently related to the water resources availability and the serious consequences resulting from water resources mismanagement, it becomes essential to carry out management practices to get a sustainable development of water resources exploitation and to anticipate the hydrological extreme phenomena that can cause serious damages in the geographic and social environment of Water Resources System (WRS). On the other hand, the mathematical analysis techniques applied on management have demonstrated to be useful as an aid tool in the WRS's planning and management.; This thesis is focused on the "systematic management" problem, being defined as the management organization with a monthly periodicity, designing and using systematized methods in order to get the best WRS management.; Within this approach, the problem of the criteria design or the system management strategies either for drought or spilt risk situations has been studied. To get it, different calculation methods of management strategies have been developed, including the necessary tools to guarantee the viability of this calculation in all the real WRS cases. There are two kinds of management strategies: deterministic strategies and non-deterministic ones. Deterministic strategies define an accurate relationship between the current situation of the system and the management decisions that have to be taken. Using the non-deterministic strategies it is possible to evaluate the consequences that the adoption of different potential decisions may have in the future, but do not describe which would be the final decision. This final decision can be taken by consensus, being based not only on the information given by the analysis of the different management proposals but also on any other criteria foreign from the hydrological study. In this thesis the methods and aid tools for the criteria design of both kinds of strategies are described.; Updated information of the system situation is necessary in order to have an efficient management. Therefore, the available resources, that is, the stored resources and the system inflows, must be restored to the natural regime. The present thesis makes an important contribution by the formulation of a generic tool for the automatic update of the WRS inflows to the natural regime.; The most important tools developed have been proved on the criteria operation calculations in two WRS that show very different problems. On the Jucar river case the analysis has been based on the operation criteria focused on the anticipation of droughts. The Alberche river case is based on the hydroelectric uses management. In this case there have been calculated the operation strategies focused on the spilt reduction and on the hydroelectric production maximization.