| This paper suggests that a critical mass of elements is forming in China which, if not better controlled, will lead to some form of political regime change. The paper will (a) elaborate on China's major problems, grouped into "backbone changes" and "catalysts," (b) provide a balance sheet of remedies the government has attempted or proposed to date, and (c) examine the remedies' relative success or failure. Among the "backbone changes": decentralization, corruption, the emergence of interest groups, the government's possible loss of legitimacy, people's increased exposure to procedural democracy, the increase in the number of students receiving a foreign education, the privatization of education and divisions within the Chinese Communist Party. The "catalysts" include: massive urban and rural unemployment, corruption, forced displacement and the gentrification of China's cities. |
