| The art and science of travel behaviour forecasting is in transition. Having relied on the traditional four-stage urban transportation modelling system for decades, modellers and planners are beginning to consider new methods for predicting travel behaviour. This has been fostered by the realisation that travel is a demand derived from the need to participate in activities that occur in varying space and time, rather than simply making trips for the sake of travelling. Activity-based modelling represents the next generation of travel demand forecasting techniques. This work documents the initial theory, development and testing of a weekday twenty-four hour, person/household-level, activity-based travel behaviour/demand model developed for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The model is applied to a 1996 base year population and transportation network. Aggregate trip estimations compare well with travel survey data and disaggregate simulated activity schedules are realistic. |
