Study On Travel Demand Of Risidents Model Based On Activity Chain

Currently, the major domestic and international travel demand forecasting model is based on the traditional model of the four-stage method. The model artificially cut off the connection between travelers" different travels, there is no activity base, did not consider the impact of the constraints of time and space. Clearly, the prediction method can not reasonable and effective to describe the residents travel. So, based in activity chain theory, this paper research activity-based travel demand analysis and forecasting theoretical model. Travel demand model based in activity chain is a powerful tool and effectiveness and effective way to predict and analyze the characteristics of the trips of residents and for the evaluation of traffic demand management strategy implementation. At the same time, it is also the key for the relevant government departments to develop transport planning strategy and to solve the increasingly serious problem of urban traffic congestion. In this paper, on the basis of previous studies, aim to establish a complete travel demand forecasting model based on the residents of the chain of activities.To sum up. this thesis mainly includes the following aspects.First, this paper introduces the theoretical basis of the activity chain of travel demand, and a brief introduction is given to the relative concepts of activity chains and of the various knowledge of the activity chain theory. Through in-depth study of the system of the activities chain model abroad, classification and characteristics of the activity-based model and disaggregate MNL, NL and Logistic model structure and parameters calibration methods. Second, according to the residents travel survey data, this paper analyzes the travel characteristics of residents. Third, this paper use logistic regression model calibration. Combining residents travel survey data, this paper establish the residents travel demand forecasting model based in activity chain which constitutes the arrangements by the residents day activity-based sub-model, the time to choose the sub-model and trip way chosen sub-model, and use sensitive perceptual analysis method to test the model and analysis.The results indicate that travel demand model can relatively effectively predict travel arrangements, travel time and travel mode of residents travel.