| One of the critical and important steps during the development process of all simulation models is the verification and validation of the model. Conventional Monte Carlo based power generating system reliability models are usually verified by brute force and in an ad hoc manner through the use of "event tracers". This verification process is tedious and usually provides the analyst with a huge number of printouts which must carefully be analyzed in order to detect and correct possible modeling errors. Computer animation, on the other hand, is becoming an increasingly important tool in the development, verification, and application of simulation models of real-world systems. This thesis presents a large-scale power generating system reliability evaluation model based on a combination of animation and Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The model has real-time animation capabilities which allow the user to graphically view the interaction among various system components. The model is expanded to graphically assess the effects of Direct Load Control (DLC) during emergency and normal modes of power generating system operation on the system reliability performance. A perturbation technique is developed and used to calculate the sensitivity of output reliability indices to the input parameters of the system. The model produces several animation displays as well as a set of numerical values. The animation displays show that animation can become an effective and a powerful aid in verifying complex large-scale power generating system models. The use of animation in a Monte Carlo simulation can also help the system planners and engineers to interactively and visually understand the random behavior and reliability performance of large electric power systems as time progresses. The numerical values give accurate information on the system performance. The model is validated by comparing its numerical results with those obtained by the GENESIS and the TPN models. |
