Modernization and fertility change in Quebec: Structural and cohort effects

Historically, fertility has been central to the survival of French Canadian culture in Quebec. Recently, the province has gone from having one of the highest fertility rates in the world to having one of the lowest. These changes in fertility have coincided with the socio-economic transformation (modernization) of Quebec society that took place gradually over time, and more intensively during and after the Quiet Revolution of the 1960s. At the present time, it is still questionable as to whether the province will be able to bring its fertility levels back to replacement levels, not withstanding government efforts to do so.;This thesis explains fertility change in Quebec from 1931-1991 at the aggregate level. Chapters 2 and 3 describe the historical details of Quebec before and after the Quiet Revolution. This historical analysis underscores how fertility is closely tied to the survival of Quebec culture and the French language, as well as to the status of women in Quebec society. In Chapter 4, the modernization thesis is used to understand the substantial decline in fertility of Quebec women in the post-Quiet Revolution period. A modified version of the modernization thesis is presented that addresses the decline in fertility due to the structural changes of modernization, and a more gradual diffusion of values supporting smaller family size. In Chapter 5, an age-period-cohort analysis of fertility is conducted in order to describe the abrupt structural changes (period effects) and the more gradual process of intergenerational socialization of women toward smaller families (cohort effects). Based on the greater impact of period, Chapter 6 provides a decomposition (path) analysis of period effects on age-specific fertility in Quebec. The analysis draws on a theory that links modernization to social exchange, marriage and fertility. Finally, a conclusion is presented in Chapter 7 that addresses methodological issues raised by the statistical analyses, theoretical issues based on the findings and suggestions for further research into this important problem.