| This thesis seeks to predict the effects which microcomputer technology is likely to have on undergraduate instruction within the next twenty years. A forecasting technique known as the Delphi method is used to collect data from experts representing America's major computer hardware companies, software companies, colleges and universities, and computer consultant organizations.;The Delphi instrument used in this thesis was constructed after a review of the literature on computer-based instruction (Chapter One) and an extensive investigation of microcomputer application models at Carnegie-Mellon University, The Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Brown University (Chapter Two). The research data are presented in Chapter Four and include open-ended and Likert scale responses. The researcher concludes the thesis with a series of predictions which conclude with the following three synthesis statements: (1) The quality of educational technology and speed at which it is created will determine the extent to which microcomputer technology revolutionizes undergraduate instruction over the next twenty years. (2) Microcomputer technology will supplement and not supplant traditional undergraduate teaching/learning; however, teaching pedagogy and the traditional teacher/student relationship will alter radically. (3) Microcomputer technology will increase efficiency in teaching and learning, thereby decreasing the number of years required to complete an undergraduate degree; or, thereby raising the quality and quantity of what is taught/learned in a traditional four-year degree program.;Thesis appendices include Definitions of Computer Terminology, Delphi Instruments, Data Summaries, Research Study Participants, Research Descriptors used for the Literature Review, and a Bibliography. |
