Research On Risk Management Of Overseas Engineering Project For China's Petroleum Enterprises Under EPC Contracting Model

With the continuous and stable development of China's national economy,the national petroleum security and economic globalization have urged Chinese petroleum companies to start going abroad,which means expanding overseas business has become a trend in the industry.However,expanding overseas petroleum and gas resources market is a comprehensive system.Due to multiple uncontrollable factors of the overseas petroleum EPC contracting projects such as large-scale investment,long period of construction and many participants involved,etc.the contractors are faced with great potential risks and management challenges;thus,it is necessary to analyze and demonstrate the project risks from all aspects,so as to ensure the enterprises "going out" smoothly,meanwhile to take the profits "coming back" safely.Therefore,the petroleum engineering contracting enterprises must fully identify the project risks and put forward effective risk prevention and corresponding measures,which has great theoretical and practical significance for petroleum engineering enterprises to successfully marching to the global market and engaging in overseas petroleum and gas development fields.This paper takes the risks of the overseas petroleum EPC contracting project as the research object,in which the qualitative and quantitative methods are combined to conduct empirical research on the petroleum exploration project in Venezuela.The problems in the field of project risk management are also given by investigation.The main contents of the research are as follows:(1)Based on a comprehensive review of the relevant theoretical research results at home and abroad,this paper summarizes the mode of overseas petroleum EPC contracting project,including the basic concepts,construction procedures and scope of work;Besides,it expounds the definition,causes and characteristics of risks in overseas petroleum projects,and fully discusses the process and necessity of risk management in this kind of project.After this,with the comparative analysis of international advanced petroleum engineering contracting management mode,this paper analyzes the risk management gap between Chinese and foreign petroleum enterprises.All of which provide theoretical support for the establishment of projects' risk evaluation system.(2)Referring to the concept of Hall three-dimensional structural model of system engineering,the method of risk map and risk chain analysis is proposed to optimize risk identification process of overseas petroleum EPC contracting project.With the risk map and risk chain analysis,this paper identifies the main risk elements and their links of overseas petroleum EPC contracting projects from the time dimension,the knowledge dimension and the logic dimension respectively,and then establishes the chain graph of risk factors covering the whole project's process.Furthermore,multihierarchy structural models of risk breakdown factors as well as the risk evaluation index system for overseas petroleum EPC contracting projects are also formed.(3)This paper describes the weighting and calculation process of risk matrix at all levels of the network analytic hierarchy process(ANP)model,applies ANP to the empirical study of the petroleum EPC contracting project of CNPC in Venezuela,and meanwhile sets up the project risk's ANP model and the risk analysis process flow.The research results indicate that the external risk of the project,including political risk and economic risk,are at a high level,and the results of the risk assessment are consistent with the actual situation of the project.Finally,on the basis of risk evaluation,combined with the specific situation of the project,some corresponding risk prevention measures are put forward such as strengthening project preliminary investigation,contract claim,emergency planning and localization management,etc.In the end,some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward from the perspective of the Chinese government and the oil enterprises itself respectively.So it provides the important reference value for risk management of overseas petroleum EPC contracting projects.The innovation of this paper lies in the introduction of Hall three-dimensional structure model to optimize the approach of project risk analysis.According to the causes and characteristics of overseas petroleum EPC contracting project risk,the risk map and risk chain are drawn,and the multi-level evaluation index system are established to identify risks and the risk relations in different project cycles.On this basis,the network analysis method is applied to determine the weighting of the evaluation index,in order to improve the rationality of the index weighting.At the same time,in the process of risk evaluation and quantification,the Super Decisions Software based on the analytic network hierarchy process is used to improve the calculation efficiency and informatization level of data analysis.In fact,this method provides theoretical support for the strategic choice of the decision-making and the evaluation results verified that the ANP risk assessment has good feasibility and rationality for the overseas petroleum EPC contracting projects.