The Interactive Impact Of International Oil Price Fluctuations And China's Economic Development

China is currently the world's second largest oil consumer and largest oil importer.The fluctuation of international oil prices poses a severe test to China's energy security system.On the one hand,With the development of Chinese economy,its dependence on imported oil is increasing day by day.At present,there is no suitable energy to challenge the position of oil;On the other hand,the international oil market is still a seller's market,oil pricing power is controlled by oil exporting countries,and international oil prices are also affected by the futures contracts of major oil futures exchanges.China's oil futures trading is in the embryonic stage of development,leading to China's passive position in the oil transaction.Most of the past oil crises were accompanied by the economic recession of major economies,which sounded an alarm for China's energy security construction.In order to cope with the shortage of oil supply and oil price shocks,countries have established energy security systems to increase strategic oil reserves.At the same time,academia has also conducted a lot of research on the economic impact of oil price fluctuations.So far,the root causes of oil price fluctuations,the transmission mechanism of the impact,and the extent of the impact have been widely discussed.On the basis of previous studies,and combined with new measurement methods,this paper attempts to solve two problems:first,discuss the dynamic impact of international oil price fluctuations on my country's macro-economy;Second,look at whether China's economic development has an obvious role in promoting international oil prices,and whether the effects are different in different periods.To answer these two questions,this paper first summarizes the characteristics of oil price fluctuations and the transmission mechanism of price shocks affecting China's output.Among the characteristics of price fluctuation,the international oil price is mainly affected by the balance of supply and demand.Geopolitical and military conflicts are the main reasons for the interruption of supply.The development of emerging economies promotes the increase of demand.Second,the maturity of the futures market has facilitated speculation,leading to high fluctuations in oil prices.The US dollar exchange rate is also a major factor affecting international oil prices.The impact transmission mechanism can be divided into direct impact and indirect impact,which directly affect consumption,investment,import and export,and indirectly affect output through monetary policy tools.Secondly,this paper selects the time series data from January 2000 to February 2020,establishes five variable monthly vector group,analyzes it by vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters,and tests the robustness by replacing a variety of proxy variables.The conclusions are as follows:1.According to the isometric impulse response function graph,the impact of oil price fluctuations on China's macroeconomics has obvious time-varying characteristics,and the impact coefficient is weakened with the development of China's economy;2.according to the impulse response function diagram at different time points,the impact in oil price rising stage is slightly greater than that in oil price falling stage,so the effect of price fluctuation is asymmetric.3.the development of China's economy can promote the increase of oil prices in the short term and restrain it in the medium term.Finally,based on the development experience of various countries and the impulse response results of empirical analysis,this paper puts forward policy suggestions for China to build oil security system.