Research On Influencing Factors And Early Warning Of My Country's Coal Enterprises Overcapacity

From 2002 to 2012,my country's coal industry experienced the "Golden Decade" of prosperity and development.However,after the golden development period passed,coal inventory remained high due to the decrease in demand,coal prices continued to fall,and sales decreased year by year.,The profit of the entire industry continues to shrink,and the overcapacity of the coal industry is becoming more and more serious,which ultimately leads to increasingly difficult operations for coal companies.Under the background of the current difficulties in the operation of coal enterprises,the coal enterprises are used as the object of this study to measure the degree of overcapacity,explore the influencing factors of overcapacity,and construct an early warning system to achieve the purpose of increasing the utilization rate of coal enterprises.Taking a clean and efficient development path and further transformation and upgrading are of great significance.This article first analyzes the current status of the entire coal industry,and finds that the entire coal industry is in a state of severe overcapacity,and the loss of coal companies is increasing year by year;secondly,based on the existing research results,analyze the factors affecting the production capacity of coal companies to facilitate future development.According to the hypothesis,in the following empirical analysis,due to the particularity of the coal industry as a resource industry,most coal companies are large state-owned listed companies.Therefore,20 large listed companies in the coal industry in China are selected as the analysis objects.In a more detailed study,the 20 coal companies are classified according to their average annual sales income.In the analysis process,first,select the production function method to establish a capacity utilization measurement model,and calculate and analyze the capacity utilization of the 20 coal enterprises after classification.Then,based on the analysis of influencing factors in the previous article,the corresponding indicators are selected for the selected Explain the state of overcapacity of coal companies;the study found that the 20 large coal companies selected in this article all have serious overcapacity,and the highest point of capacity utilization rate appeared in 2012,after 2012 began to fall in a cliff-like state,It only gradually picked up in 2017;in the empirical analysis of influencing factors,it is found that the most important factor affecting the capacity utilization rate of coal enterprises in China is the intervention of local governments.Finally,when constructing an evaluation index system for capacity utilization,the selection of indicators is considered based on the four characteristics of coal companies:development,strategy,innovation,and orientation,and the evaluation comprehensive index is based on this calculation.Construct a binary Logit early warning model,and finally conduct an empirical test on the early warning model to test whether it is accurate.The research results show that,among the characteristics of coal companies,the developmental and strategic characteristics have a comparison of their impact on the degree of capacity utilization The biggest,the degree of influence of innovation and orientation is relatively small,the accuracy of the built-up overcapacity early warning model is more than 85%,and the prediction effect is relatively good.Finally,based on the above analysis and research,relevant policy recommendations are put forward for the current state of overcapacity in coal enterprises.