Research On Risk Early-Warning And Collaborative Governance Mechanism Of Urban Haze In Six Provinces Of Central China

In recent years,haze pollution has continued to occur,which has seriously threatened the health,socio-economic development and even public safety of urban residents.Accumulating evidence has shown that urban haze pollution has become one of the important factors hindering the sustainable development of the economy.In order to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of haze,this paper chose the representative cities from the six central provinces in China.Based on game theory,air pollution control theory,multi-center governance theory,and collaborative governance theory,this paper probed into the air quality data and economic data of these cities from 2014 to 2017,drew the map of the temporal and spatial variation of urban air quality of each city.In addition,the haze risk index was constructed and the risk matrix was used to analyze the level of haze risk.The factors affecting the haze risk were extracted,and a database of the influencing factors of haze risk was established.The key influencing factors were screened by the expert scoring-PCA composite method.All the research work led to a socioeconomic growth model and the numerical simulation was adopted to further fit the quantitative relationship between the socioeconomic growth model and the Air Pollution Index Prediction(AQI).The urban air quality prediction model was then formed,and the coordinated management mechanism of urban haze risk in the six central provinces was proposed.The specific research steps are as follows:(1)Literature review on air quality was carefully done,and the factors affecting haze,risk assessment,early-warning and governance mechanisms were summarized.The concept of haze and the characteristics of haze were defined.Moreover,the relevant theories of haze governance,including game theory,air pollution control theory,multi-center governance theory,collaborative governance theory,were analyzed.These theories serve as the theoretical basis.(2)The temporal and spatial variation of haze was analyzed based on the air quality and economic data.The haze risk index was constructed upon the risk matrix to analyze the level of haze risk.(3)Considering the comprehensive nature of the influencing factors of the six central provinces,a total of 29 influencing factors were extracted from four dimensions of conditions: government,industry,public and environment.Based on the expert score-PCA composite method,12 key influencing factors of haze risk were selected,namely AQI index,population size,urbanization rate,Gross National Product,secondary industry output value,tertiary industry output value,industrial output value,construction industry output value,tourism output value,car ownership,total population energy consumption and corporate pollution emissions.(4)Based on the selected 12 key influencing factors,the urban socioeconomic growth model(SEI)of the six central provinces under the effect of haze was constructed.The SEI model,together with AQI data,was used to fit the AQI model and to quantify the functional relationship between urban haze and social economic growth.The research work is supposed to provide decision-making and reference basis for sustainable socio-economic development and haze management under the influence of haze.(5)Based on key influencing factors,the SEI model and the AQI model,this research tries to propose the collaborative governance measures,to construct the governmental governance normalization mechanism,to improve the market regulation mechanism,and to broaden the social participation expression mechanism.