Risk Research Of China's LNG Import From Countries Along The "The Belt And Road"

Energy plays an important role in the economic development,production and life of all countries.At present,with the rapid development of the world,the demand for energy is increasing day by day,but the problem of environmental pollution is also increasingly significant.As an efficient clean energy,liquefied natural gas(LNG)is helpful to alleviate the contradiction between energy demand and environmental protection.Since the 21 st century,with the rapid development of China's economy and the surge of energy demand,in response to the call for environmental protection,China's energy structure has been changing to a clean type,and there is a huge gap in the supply of natural gas market.Import of liquefied natural gas has become an important measure to fill the gap in the market.The 2013 "The Belt and Road"(B&R)initiative has provided a new direction for China's LNG imports.B&R area is the main distribution area of world oil and gas resources.Natural gas resources are abundant along the route.Since its launch,the initiative has contributed to China's economic and energy infrastructure construction and other cooperation among many countries along the route,thus creating a favorable environment for the development of energy politics and energy economy.B&R also has its own problems in its resources,politics and economic stability.Therefore,this article has a significant theoretical and practical significance for the risk of China LNG import along B&R countries.It has important theoretical and practical significance for China's LNG supply security and import risk.Firstly,on the basis of consulting relevant literature,this paper deeply studies the relevant knowledge and common evaluation methods of risk management theory;the opportunities which "The Belt and Road" bring for China's LNG import in Building political environment,expanding import channels,ensuring transportation safety and optimizing cooperation system and introduces China's LNG import situation under B&R.In general,China's LNG import volume is increasing year by year.The source countries along the route are mainly Qatar and Malaysia,which are transported to domestic terminals from the middle east route,Africa route,Southeast Asia route and South America route by LNG carriers.The import price is linked to the weighted average price of Japanese crude oil,mainly through medium and long-term trade contracts.Secondly,identify and analyze the risk factors of LNG import from five aspects of resources,politics,economy,transportation and market,and design the import risk evaluation index system based on the characteristics of LNG import.Thirdly,taking 11 countries along "The Belt and Road" as the research object,the data of 2018 are selected as samples,and the entropy weight method is used to conduct longitudinal comparison and comprehensive analysis of different dimensions.The results show that Indonesia has the highest risk level in these countries and the lowest risk level is Qatar.Algeria has the highest risk value in resource dimension,Nigeria has the highest risk value in political dimension and transportation dimension,Angola has the highest risk value in economic dimension,and Indonesia has the highest risk value in market dimension.Finally,based on the above research results,the specific measures to reduce the risk of China's LNG import are given from two aspects of source country selection and risk source dimension: to adopt different cooperation strategies for countries with different risk levels,to increase the exploration of domestic natural gas resources and the assessment of foreign resource risks,to improve the emergency support mechanism,to increase the construction of transportation capacity,Improve China's military influence on the sea,establish LNG import alliance with neighboring countries,accelerate the construction of domestic natural gas trading market system,and grasp the independent pricing power.