Study On Coal And Gas Outburst Risk Identification Based On Bayesian Network

Coal is the first major energy source in China,and coal mine safety,green,intelligent and precise mining is a key concern.To accelerate the construction of intelligent coal mine,realize the deep integration of the new generation of information technology and the coal industry,adhere to the coal mine to reduce personnel,increase safety,improve efficiency as the construction goal of intelligent coal mine,and realize the intelligent integrated management and control of coal mine is the inevitable road of industrial upgrading and transformation of the coal industry.From the current coal mine safety accidents,coal and gas outburst is extremely harmful and destructive,which seriously threatens the health and safety development of China's coal mines.The cause mechanism of coal and gas outburst accidents is complex,and the influencing factors are complex.The common reasons are unknown hazard sources,lack or ineffectiveness of emergency facilities,and improper emergency treatment.Analyze the accident investigation report,extract the characteristics of accident symptoms,accurately quantify the risk probability from the perspective of multi-factor coupling,and put forward more effective prevention measures for coal and gas outburst accidents.Based on the analysis data of 90 coal and gas outburst accidents,the paper extracted the accident characteristics for the direct and indirect causes of the case reports,analyzed the risk and symptom factors of coal and gas outburst accidents from the aspects of human,machine,environment and pipe,and constructed the risk identification index system according to the influencing factors of the accidents.SPSS25.0 statistical analysis software was used to normalize the data and calculate the correlation coefficient between risk indicators.Combined with expert knowledge and literature research,a Bayesian network model for quantitative analysis of accident risk probability was constructed.The risk indexes of coal and gas outburst accidents caused by people,machinery,ring and pipe are analyzed to find out the risk indexes with higher influence.Then,the factors of people,machinery,ring and pipe are taken as intermediate events to analyze the main factors leading to coal and gas outburst accidents as a whole.With GeNIe software for bayesian network model model testing,reverse reasoning,sensitivity analysis and the most probable chain analysis.The results show that mechanical factor(0.075)is the most important cause of coal and gas outburst,followed by environmental factor(0.063),human factor(0.061)and management factor(0.030).The government supervision is not in place,the detection parameter is not complete,the worker safety consciousness is weak,the coal seam permeability is poor and the working face return air lane is disrepair seriously are all kinds of factors of risk sources,to avoid the occurrence of coal and gas outburst accidents should be treated from these sources.Fidure 31 Table 19 Reference 74...