Research On Risk Management Of SCX Tight Gas Development Project

The imbalance between the supply and demand of oil and gas resources at home and abroad,coupled with the increasing dependence on foreign oil and gas,has exposed the oil and gas supply in China to serious security dangers,making it one of the most important developing strategies to improve the ability of oil and gas exploration risk assessment,so as to ensure the security of oil supply.Firstly,the exploring and developing progresses,and the risk managing status of the unconventional natural gas(tight gas,shale gas,and coalbed gas)both at home and abroad are analyzed based on the tight gas development project.The research results confirm the lack of researches on the risk management of tight gas developing projects,most of which are relatively concentrated on the risk management of shale gas and coalbed methane.The characteristics of risk factors in the developing process of tight gas are similar to those of shale gas and coalbed methane to be used for reference.Given the lack of historical data on unconventional natural gas in China,the qualitative-research method is hereby adopted.Then,the definition,characteristics,methods,and steps of project risks,risk identification,and risk assessment are introduced to clarify the main risk characteristics of tight gas developing projects.This thesis focuses on the comprehensive and systematic identification of the main potential risks of tight gas development projects.Seven main risk indicators of tight gas development projects,including resource risk,technology risk,equipment risk,market risk,policy risk,environmental risk,and management risk,are screened out based on the literature survey results and combined with the expert scoring method.These seven indicators are the key factors that determine the risk level of tight gas developing projects,and play a decisive role in the project risk level.Additionally,the weight of each risk factor is determined by the improved AHP and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted to comprehensively evaluate the risk of a tight gas development project in Sichuan Province.The feasibility and practicability of this paper are further verified via practical examples,and acceptable conclusions and suggestions are correspondingly proposed.