Study On Emission Reduction Pressure,Carbon Emission Influencing Factors And Countermeasures Of Power Generation Enterprises

The UN framework convention on climate change（UNFCCC）invited the IPCC to prepare the IPCC special report on global warming of 1.5℃,which was released in incheon,South Korea,on 8 October 2018.So far,the goal of achieving global temperature rise at 1.5℃became the focus of research in various countries.The latest global temperature rise target requires all countries in the world to step up efforts to reduce emissions.For China,the power industry,as the sector of basic energy conversion and secondary energy supply,accounts for more than 40%of the total carbon emissions of the country’s power generation enterprises,ranking the first in terms of carbon emissions.It can be seen that it is of great theoretical and practical significance to quantitatively calculate and analyze the pressure of power emission reduction based on the global 1.5℃temperature rise target,to study the influencing factors of power generation enterprises’carbon emissions,and on this basis to propose the countermeasures of enterprises’emission reduction for the realization of China’s emission reduction target.Under different temperature target,this paper firstly based on the principle of distributive justice,emissions from base,equality,ability,responsibility,the Angle of the four global accumulated carbon quota allocation between countries,thus calculated from 2℃to 1.5℃under the global temperature rise of the target,scope of the change of China’s total carbon quotas,and based on this measure,measure the power in the future the change of total carbon quotas,quantitative analysis of the electric power enterprise pressure to reduce emissions.Secondly,the Kaya identity and LMDI decomposition model were used to decompose the carbon emissions of power generation enterprises and analyze the effect size and mechanism of each influencing factor.Finally,on the basis of the action mechanism of the influencing factors,the corresponding emission reduction countermeasures are put forward respectively from the perspectives of the government and the power generation enterprises.Through the above research,the following conclusions are drawn:（1）The four principles of distributive justice,emissions reductions schemes（based on the ability and the responsibility principle）than emissions plan（based on the base of emissions and the principle of equality）,Chinese share of total carbon quotas will be more,but no matter what kind of allocation,1.5℃under the target temperature in the whole world,China should be under the existing emission reduction measures to explore a better strategy to reduce emissions.（2）Quantitative measurement of emission reduction pressure in electricity.Allocation based on economic output,the power industry of Chinese economic output contribution rate decline in 0-20%,in line with the national policy under the trend of the development of the economy,the existing mode of electricity emissions at a benchmark quota can meet the requirements of 2℃temperature rise,to achieve temperature of 1.5℃,the benchmark accumulated carbon quotas,on the basis of power need to reduce the future of the accumulated carbon quotas is about 1.14-24.65Gt CO₂,and the electricity sector for the whole society,the contribution rate of GDP is higher,the future carbon credits to reduce the quantity is small;Historic emissions under the scheme,only the carbon intensity fell by less than 40%,under the current development trend of baseline emissions can meet the requirements of goal 2℃temperature rise of carbon emissions,and compared with the benchmark quota,2℃temperature rise under the target of total carbon quota increase about 5.12Gt CO₂,but history carbon intensity in the decline range 40%-60%,no matter what kind of drop ratio,cannot meet the benchmark quota 1.5℃temperature target,and achieve 1.5℃temperature rise,compared with 2℃,the cumulative carbon quotas of electricity must be reduced16.28-24.42Gt CO₂,The reduction was nearly half.（3）Analysis of carbon emission factors in power generation enterprises.Based on the LMDI decomposition model,the carbon emission factors of power generation enterprises were decomposed,and seven factors affecting the carbon emission changes of power generation enterprises were obtained,namely the carbon emission coefficient of fossil energy,fuel structure,coal consumption rate of power generation,power production structure,power production intensity,population,per capita GDP.Among them,the per capita GDP,population and fuel structure play a promoting role,and the per capita GDP has the largest promoting role.The power production structure,the power production intensity and the power generation coal consumption rate have the inhibitory effect.（4）Emission reduction strategies.From the perspective of power generation enterprises themselves,the strategies should be adopted as follows:promoting the upgrading of power production structure and vigorously developing clean energy;Improve power generation efficiency and reduce power generation coal consumption rate;Restructuring fossil fuels;Breakthrough in the bottleneck of carbon capture and storage technology.The strategies adopted by the government are:to establish and improve the energy law system,and to strengthen the supervision and management of law enforcement agencies;We will improve the carbon trading mechanism and change the way carbon quotas are allocated.Introducing mandatory policies such as a carbon tax;We will formulate subsidies for low-carbon technologies to promote the development and utilization of clean energy in power generation enterprises.