Research On Risk Assessment For Navigation Of Jianghan Canal

With the vigorous promotion of waterway transportation in China and Hubei Province,Jianghan canal has ushered in unprecedented development opportunities with its unique location advantages.Jianghan canal is in the early stage of navigation.Due to the low traffic density,few cases of navigation risk accidents and the lack of systematic,comprehensive and detailed accident statistics,the navigation risk status and key risk factors of Jianghan canal are unclear,and targeted navigation risk control measures cannot be taken.With the increase of navigation volume,these problems will greatly limit the navigation safety of Jianghan canal.Therefore,it is particularly important to study the navigation risk status and key risk factors of Jianghan canal,which is of great significance for Jianghan canal to take effective navigation risk control measures and reduce the navigation risk.First of all,this dissertation makes clear the connotation and characteristics of navigation risk by referring to the relevant research of inland navigation risk,on this basis,it comprehensively and systematically analyzes the navigation and safety status of Jianghan canal,clarifies the risk factors of navigation,and paves the way for the establishment of the index system;Secondly,after initially selecting the navigation risk indicators of Jianghan canal,through the method of questionnaire,collect the opinions of relevant experts on the importance of the evaluation indicators.In addition,with expert opinion as the leading factor,the improved correlation coefficient method is used to screen the navigation indexes of Jianghan canal,and then a systematic,scientific and comprehensive navigation risk assessment index system of Jianghan canal is established;Thirdly,based on the causal relationship between different levels of indicators in the indicator system,the Bayesian network structure of navigation risk assessment of Jianghan canal is constructed,combining the fuzzy set theory and the improved D-S evidence theory to deal with expert opinions,the node parameters of Bayesian network are obtained;Then,this dissertation uses netica software to build Bayesian network model and realize Bayesian network reasoning,whicht includes: the probability of the total risk of Jianghan canal navigation can be obtained by positive reasoning,the risk index that has a greater impact on the overall risk can be obtained by sensitivity analysis,and the risk index that has a greater probability when the overall risk occurs can be obtained by diagnostic reasoning;Finally,through Bayesian network reasoning,the key indicators affecting the navigation risk of Jianghan canal are obtained,the key indicators are analyzed and the targeted navigation risk control measures are proposed.This dissertation identifies the potential risk factors in the navigation risk of Jianghan canal from a systematic point of view,and applies the risk assessment model constructed by the combination of fuzzy set theory,improved D-S evidence theory and Bayesian network to the navigation risk assessment of Jianghan canal,It is of great practical significance to clarify the current situation of navigation risk of Jianghan canal,find out key risk factors,put forward targeted control measures,and reduce the level of navigation risk of Jianghan canal.At the same time,the research results of this dissertation can also provide reference for the research of navigation risk management and shipping development of Jianghan canal.