Cause Analysis And Risk Assessment Of Railway Operation Accidents

With the rapid development of information technology and the continuous improvement of people’s living standards,railway operation ushered in reform and innovation.However,under the circumstances,the changes of railway operation risk form and the challenges it will face are increasing.In the face of the complex causes of railway operation accidents,the traditional linear description and analysis model of railway operation accidents can analyze the causes of accidents,but the discovery and carding of the relationship between the potential causes of accidents and the factors are inadequate.Under big data,it is of great significance to use data mining method to find the rules hidden under the surface of accidents,so as to assist the safety management and decisionmaking of railway operation and improve the level of railway operation risk management.According to the characteristics of railway operation,this paper discusses the occurrence rules of railway operation accidents based on complex network theory,association rule mining method and risk acceptance criterion.The specific work is as follows:(1)Based on the theory of accident model,the causes of railway operation accidents are sorted and classified.Through the analysis of the influencing factors of railway operation,the risk factor system of railway operation is established.(2)According to the vague value theory and the accident report data of British railway accident investigation bureau from 2010 to 2019,the vague value similarity matrix of British railway operation risk is established.By extracting and classifying the causative factors of accident report,and analyzing the similarity matrix,the important causative factors are found.(3)Based on the Apriori algorithm,association rule mining is carried out for the causative factors of British railway accidents.The first 30 association rules with high confidence and support degree were found,the important relationships among the causal factors were obtained,and the results were visualized so that they could be presented more intuitively.(4)The risk acceptance criterion theory is used to judge the risk level of British railway operation from 2010 to 2019.The results show that the risk level of British railway operation is still within the acceptable range of individuals and society.