Research On Risk Coupling And Countermeasures Of High-speed Railway Operation In Perilous And Mountainous Areas

Safety is a key point in the operation of high-speed railways in difficult mountainous areas.It is reflected in all aspects of the whole process of railway transportation.However,the high-speed railway system in the difficult mountainous area is huge and complex,and its risks,which are formed in personnel,equipment,environment and management,are complicated and increasing.Once an unexpected accident occurs during the operation,it will inevitably lead to unpredictably serious consequences.Operational accidents,especially major accidents and mega-accidents,are often caused by the coupling of multiple risk factors.The existing research results rarely analyze the cause of accidents from the perspective of risk coupling,and do not consider various risk factors as a whole system to study the comprehensive impact on operational safety.Therefore,it is extremely necessary to systematically study the risk coupling mechanism of high-speed railway operation in difficult mountainous areas,so as to further comprehend the whole dynamic process of coupling risk affecting operation.In view of the lack of risk coupling theory of high-speed railway operation in difficult mountainous areas,the main work in this paper is as follows.Firstly,the coupling mechanism of high-speed railway operation risk in difficult mountainous areas is analyzed and discussed.From the perspective of meaning,classification and characteristics,the connotation of the risk and risk coupling of high-speed railway operation in difficult mountainous areas is discussed.On this basis,the components of the four major risk factors,which are personnel,equipment,environment and management,are deeply analyzed,and the risk coupling process is studied.According to the risk-coupling participation factor,the four risk factors are divided into homogeneous risk coupling and heterogeneous risk coupling.The system dynamics model and cases are combined to qualitatively analyze the coupling relationship among homogeneous risk factors or heterogeneous risk factors.Then,risk coupling models of high-speed railway operation in difficult mountainous areas are researched and constructed,including the N-K model and the coupling model based on cloud model.The advantages and disadvantages of the commonly used risk coupling models are compared and analyzed.The N-K model is selected and constructed,and the example datas are used as a support so that the coupling rules of heterogeneous risk factors can be studied.The coupling model based on cloud model,that is proved to be feasible by examples,is selected and constructed,and the coupling degree of homogeneous risk factors is quantitatively studied.Finally,based on the above research,the idea and methods about risk decoupling of high-speed railway operation in difficult mountainous areas are studied and proposed.For the three processes of operational risk coupling,the scientific and rational strategies about risk management are proposed,and Xi'an-Chengdu High Speed Railway is taken as an example to verify the strategies.Through the above research on coupling mechanism,coupling models and decoupling methods of operational risk,the understanding of risk coupling of high-speed railway operation in difficult mountainous areas is deepened,and the theoretical reference basis for operational risk management is provided.