Simulation Of China’s Carbon Tax Policy Based On Imperfect Competition Dynamic CGE Model

In recent years,with the increasingly severe environmental problems caused by greenhouse gas emission,emission reduction has become the focus of global attention.According to the latest 14 th Five-Year Development Plan,China will cut energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 13.5 percent and 18 percent respectively in 2025.In order to promote emission reduction and achieve the goal of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutral",low-carbon policies based on market mechanism are imperative,and carbon tax is one of them.The introduction of carbon tax is bound to have a negative impact on China’s economy.How to determine the optimal tax rate and collection range to balance China’s economic development and environmental objectives has become an important subject of current carbon tax policy research.In this paper,an incomplete competitive dynamic CGE model with carbon tax modules is constructed,and nine different carbon tax policy scenarios are designed based on tax rate,collection scope and deduction mechanism.By introducing the hypothesis of imperfect competition,the calibration process of CGE model is improved to make the model more close to the real market environment.The results show that the negative impact of carbon tax on the economy is positively correlated with the tax rate and tax range.Although the low tax rate has the least impact on the macro economy,it is also not conducive to the realization of emission reduction.Therefore,the setting of the tax rate should be biased towards the medium and high tax rate.Only when a carbon tax covers coal,oil and gas,and power industries at a medium-high rate can it reduce emissions significantly,but its macroeconomic impact is equally significant.In terms of output,the output of the coal,oil and gas and power industries is most affected by the carbon tax policy,followed by energy-intensive industries such as steel,non-ferrous metals smelting and equipment manufacturing.The mechanism of carbon tax exemption and deduction is effective.When coal,oil,natural gas and electric power industries are allowed to exempt carbon tax and deduct part of value-added tax under high tax rate,the carbon tax policy can achieve relatively ideal emission reduction effect with relatively low negative economic impact.The key to harmonizing emission reduction and economy lies in the tax burden borne by the energy production industry.This paper believes that the tax rate of carbon tax policy should be as high as possible.At the same time,in order to balance the negative impact of the economy,preferential tax policies such as tax rate reduction or tax deduction can be given to the coal,oil,natural gas and electric power industries to achieve a balance between economic development and emission reduction.Based on the theory of imperfect competitive market,the original equations of the standard CGE model are rededuced and improved in this paper,and the model will be applied to a certain extent in the future,which makes the research in this paper have certain theoretical significance.The multi-scenario simulation of carbon tax policy provides scientific suggestions for the formulation of carbon tax policy,which makes the research of this paper have certain practical significance.