Social Risk Assessment Method And Application Research For Major Construction Projects

In recent years,focusing on major national strategic needs,my country has deployed a number of major projects in multiple fields,covering transportation,water conservancy,nuclear power and other aspects.As a large and complex project,major projects have the characteristics of numerous stakeholders,long construction period,and complex construction.Especially in the decision-making stage of major projects,the interest disputes involved are complex,which can easily lead to social conflicts and affect social public safety.The Party Central Committee and the state attach great importance to the establishment and improvement of a social security risk assessment system for major decision-making,and propose that all major construction projects require social risk assessment.The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the "safe development concept" and emphasized the importance of improving the social public security system.Therefore,we must attach great importance to the assessment and management of social public security risks of major projects to maintain social stability and harmony.This paper takes the social public safety of major projects as the research object,based on the stakeholder theory,adopts literature analysis method,case analysis method,structural equation model,Bayesian network model and other methods to study the social public safety risk assessment method of major projects,and based on Stakeholder collaboration and the whole process of risk evolution process collaboration,and systematically put forward opinions and suggestions on risk management.In the research of risk assessment methods,this paper starts research from four aspects: the establishment of the index system,the research of the risk evolution process,the verification of the risk evolution model,and the establishment of the risk assessment model.Firstly,on the basis of a full understanding of the related concepts of major projects and social public safety risks,this article sorts out the risk factors affecting the social public safety of major projects through the literature review method and case analysis method,and identifies 30 major projects social public safety For risk indicators,the opinions of experts,scholars and industry staff are solicited through questionnaire surveys,and SPSS23.0 software is used to verify the rationality of the indicator system.Secondly,based on the establishment of a social public safety risk indicator system for major projects,this paper analyzes the evolutionary process of social risks in the decision-making stage of major projects based on stakeholder theory and from the perspectives of government management departments and the people.The evolution process is divided into four stages:government feasibility study and preliminary project decision-making,mass protest,government decisionmaking amendment and emergency management,and government formal project establishment.Thirdly,in order to explore the social risk indicators at various stages of risk evolution and establish a risk evolution network model,this paper establishes a hypothetical model of "Major Project Social Public Safety Risk Indicators—Risk Evolution Stage" based on the theoretical analysis.The questionnaire design was carried out on the hypothesis path,the opinions of industry experts and scholars were consulted,and the AMOS24.0software was used to conduct a confirmatory analysis of various indicator variables and decision variables.Finally,17 significant hypotheses were obtained using the path analysis method,and a major project social public was established.Security risk evolution network model.Finally,on the basis of the above research,draw the Bayesian network model of the social public safety risk evolution of major projects,using the Bayesian network Obtain the risk of each stage directly,and use sensitivity analysis to evaluate the key risk factors.In the application research of risk assessment methods,this article proposes risk management ideas based on the above-mentioned research results.On the one hand,based on the social public safety risk assessment results of major projects,starting with key risk factors,targeted governance opinions are put forward.On the other hand,based on the proposed risk evolution model of major projects,starting from the perspective of multi-agent collaboration,systematically analyze the risks of each stage of risk evolution and put forward governance ideas and opinions.The research results of this paper have perfected the social public safety index system of major projects on the one hand,and innovatively established the social risk evolution network of major projects on the other hand,providing theoretical reference and guidance for subsequent major project social risk evaluation and risk management opinions.