Research On The Influence Of Digital Transformation Of Manufacturing Industry On Trade Implied Carbon ——An Extended Analysis Of Emerging Market Countries

The problem of global warming is becoming more and more serious,which has seriously threatened the future sustainable development of mankind.In response,the international community has formed a unified political consensus and is taking a series of measures to deal with the environmental deterioration.With the signing of the Paris Agreement,the international community will focus on the allocation of a new round of carbon emission reduction responsibilities in the foreseeable future.In a sense,the realization of the goals of "peak carbon dioxide emissions" and "carbon neutrality" in the emerging economies represented by China is not only the basic requirement for the sustainable development of human society,but also the necessary condition to ease the pressure of environmental rules in the future international negotiations.However,in the context of GVC’s international division of labor,to achieve the "double carbon" target,we should not only pay attention to the carbon emissions caused by domestic demand,but also pay full attention to the trade implicit carbon caused by the demand of other countries.Especially for emerging economies,it is crucial to explore ways to reduce the carbon implicit in trade.At the same time,with the updating and iteration of digital technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data,the process of the fourth industrial revolution is accelerating,which is profoundly changing the way of human production and life.All countries in the world attach great importance to the application of the new generation of digital technologies in the field of traditional manufacturing,and have formulated a series of development strategies.The digital transformation of manufacturing is giving birth to a new round of green industrial revolution.Based on this,this paper discusses the effects and channels of the digital transformation of manufacturing industry on trade implicit carbon from the theoretical and empirical levels respectively,which is a problem of great theoretical and practical significance.In the theoretical analysis,based on the environmental pollution analysis framework of Copeland and Taylor（2001）and from the perspective of global value chain division of labor,this paper constructs a theoretical model of the influencing factors of trade implicit carbon,and analyzes the impact path of manufacturing digital transformation on trade implicit carbon from the perspective of "technological progress" and "value chain climb".In the empirical analysis,based on WIOD input-output data and economic account data,and the "Network Readiness Index" released by the World Economic Forum,this paper estimates the digital transformation level of manufacturing industry and the trade terms of implicit carbon pollution in various countries,and analyzes their current situation.Furthermore,using the multi-dimensional panel fixed effect model,it is concluded that the digital transformation of manufacturing industry can significantly reduce the trade terms of implicit carbon pollution through the effect of technological progress and the effect of value chain climbing.The extended analysis of emerging market countries shows that,firstly,taking the overall development level of digital economy as a threshold variable,due to the network external effect of digital economy,the impact of digital investment in manufacturing industry on the terms of trade of implicit carbon pollution has nonlinear characteristics.In countries with better overall development level of digital economy,the digital investment in manufacturing industry plays a more significant role in improving the terms of trade of implicit carbon pollution.Then,the analysis of national heterogeneity shows that,for emerging economies,compared with developed economies,the changes in industry and energy structure,low-carbon technology and other aspects led by the digital transformation of manufacturing industry can bring a greater degree of improvement to their implicit carbon pollution terms of trade.Therefore,the energy-saving and emission-reduction effects of the digital transformation of manufacturing industry are more obvious.Secondly,industry heterogeneity indicates that from the perspective of factor intensity,the effect of digital transformation of manufacturing industry on energy conservation and emission reduction in capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries is more obvious than that in labor-intensive industries.From the perspective of pollution intensity,compared with non-pollution intensive industries,the digital transformation of manufacturing industry has a more obvious effect on energy conservation and emission reduction in pollution intensive industries.Finally,from the perspective of export product categories,compared with the final products,the digital transformation of manufacturing industry has a stronger role in promoting the reduction of trade terms of carbon pollution implicit in intermediate products.The conclusions of this paper provide a new perspective for speeding up the digital transformation of manufacturing industry,reducing the trade terms of China’s implicit carbon pollution and realizing the "double carbon" target.