Evaluation Of Railway Investment Risk In Central Asia Based On Bayesian Network

"One belt and one road" is a major development strategy of our country in the new era.As an important part of the "one belt and one road",railway investment in Central Asia has many characteristics,such as long construction cycle,large amount of funds and large number of participants.Therefore,strengthening the research on the risk evaluation of railway investment in Central Asia,has strong theoretical and practical value.In this paper,the Central Asian Railway as an example,the effectiveness of using Bayesian network in the project investment risk evaluation aspects,from political risk,social risk,economic risk,natural risk,technology risk,management risk,completion risk,environmental risk comprehensive system analysis of railway investment risk in Central Asia,to provide risk assessment A systematic modeling method.This paper describes the first railway on foreign investment related theory,and the contents and the definition of the risk of railway investment is defined,so as to make the research more targeted.Introduction and evaluation of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on analytic hierarchy process,the rationality of the Bayesian network method is better in the risk assessment of railway investment.Secondly,construct the central railway investment risk evaluation model,and introduces the model of structure learning and parameter learning,and demonstrates its reasoning.Finally,this chapter takes the risk faced by the central railway investment as an example,through the questionnaire survey,expert scoring method,combined with the Bayesian network model to make an empirical study on central railway investment risk.The empirical study shows that investment in the process of central railway,social risk investment to the central railway at greatest risk,cultural differences between different countries in which mainly depends on the degree of social stability and.In addition,the political risk of railway investment in Central Asia is more prominent,Central Asian countries are plagued by problems of political turmoil,violence,and development,the country’s political system,there are contradictions and conflicts,these factors will adversely affect the railway investment in central asia.Therefore,aiming at the results of the empirical study,we put forward corresponding risk response measures,which will help China Railway to properly solve the impact of related risks in the development process,thereby speeding up the pace of going out and contributing to the development of "One belt and one road".