Research On Engineering Quality Risk Analysis And Quality Accident Loss Prediction

Since the reform and opening up,the construction industry has gradually become a pillar industry to promote the social and economic development of our country.However,under the influence of the uneven level of construction personnel,imperfect management system,numerous construction projects and other factors,there are a large number of engineering quality accidents and a large number of engineering quality problems.These quality accidents may not necessarily lead to casualties,but they may cause losses to construction enterprises and hinder the development of social economy.The description text of engineering quality accident includes the location,cause and impact of the accident,but the lack of reasonable use of engineering quality accident description texts in the past leads to the waste of high-quality resources that can be used to assist decision-making.Therefore,on the basis of collecting engineering quality accident cases,this study carries on statistical analysis and cause analysis of engineering quality accidents,then carries on engineering quality risk analysis based on Bow-tie model,and finally carries on the prediction research of engineering quality accident loss based on time series analysis model.The details are as follows:This study takes engineering quality accidents as the research object,first carries on statistical analysis of engineering quality accident cases,explores occurrence characteristics and occurrence rules of engineering quality accidents,then carries on cause analysis of engineering quality accident cases.Combined with the accident cause theory,the causes of the accidents are analyzed from four aspects: personnel,material,machinery and environment.Based on the LDA theme model theory,the engineering quality risk factors are identified,and the engineering quality accident fault tree,event tree and Bow-tie model are established.Finally,the engineering quality risk avoidance measures are put forward to provide a reference basis for ensuring engineering quality,reducing or even avoiding engineering quality accidents.On the basis of in-depth analysis of concrete engineering quality accidents,the fault tree model of accident causes is established,and then the minimum cut sets and structural important coefficients are solved.Finally,preventive measures are put forward to provide a reference basis for ensuring concrete engineering quality,reducing or even avoiding concrete engineering quality accidents.In this study,the time series of quality accident loss amount is constructed according to the historical data of engineering quality accident loss amount,and then the stationarity of the series is tested.Because the data series is stable,there is no need for difference.Then the order of the time series is determined and the prediction model is established.Finally,the prediction model is tested and the loss amount is predicted,which provides the basis for the decision-making of the enterprise.It plays the role of allowing enterprises to reserve reserves,taking engineering quality risk prevention measures and recovery measures as soon as possible to prevent losses caused by engineering quality accidents.