A Research On The Evaluation Of China’s Energy Security

The important driving force for the economic society to break through the higher development level is the optimizing and upgrading of the energy dimension.It can be said that energy high-quality development is the key engine for high-quality economic and social development,and energy security is the heart of this engine.At present,China’s energy security is facing many pressure factors,such as the rapidly expanding energy gaps,increasingly severe environmental debts,and vigorous reforms of energy system,so it is of great practical significance to focus on evaluating China’s energy security.In this regard,based on proposing the theoretical model of energy security and sorting out its influencing factors,this paper carries out the research on evaluation of China’s energy security state.Specific as follows:In the part of qualitative analysis,energy security is defined from the perspective of energy economics and high-quality development,and the theoretical model of energy security is constructed.Then,representative indicators are selected from the dimensions of energy,environment and economy to sort out the current situation of influencing factors of China’s energy security from 1981 to 2018.It’s found that the influence factors of each dimension have different performance: the weakness of supply dimension is energy endowment,dependence on foreign energy and transportation system;the breach of consumer dimension is weakening the volatility of energy prices and improving energy usage effectiveness;the cleanliness of energy utilization structure and pollutant emissions need to be optimized urgently for environmental dimension;economic dimension has performed well,with steady improvements in GDP,energy industry investment,patent technology and industrial structure optimization.In the empirical analysis part,firstly,an evaluation system covering 16 indicators of energy supply(demand),environment and economy is established.Based on the FA-GA-SVR integrated evaluation model,China’s energy security performance from 1981 to 2018 is quantitatively evaluated,using the 3σ principle to grade the energy security and analyzing the evaluation results.Secondly,the influence factors of energy security are quantitatively identified based on co-integration model,and the trend of energy security index in 2019-2020 is predicted combined with the grey system theory.Finally,the corresponding improvement paths are proposed from four dimensions.The study found: from 1981 to 2018,China’s energy security performance showed an upward trend,upgrading from "unsafe" to "safe";Structurally,the security level of energy supply,environment and economy have significantly improved,the safety index of the three has increased by 2.2,1.7 and 2.8 times respectively over the past 38 years,the security index of consumption dimension has been fluctuating to rise;from the perspective of influencing factors,China’s energy security focuses on energy production,dependence on foreign energy,energy price volatility,diversity and cleanliness of energy utilization structure,emission of sulfur dioxide,energy industry investment,patented technology and industrial structure.The trend of energy security index in 2019-2020 indicates China’s energy security situation will continue to ameliorate,entering the "reliable" level,and the security level in all four dimensions has improved compared to 2018.