Research On Beijing Energy Security Evaluation

Energy is an important material basis for national economic and social development.Beijing as a very large city with a population of more than two thousand,facing a resource dependent on external supply,high energy consumption,low energy efficiency and energy consumption caused by environmental pollution and so on energy security issues,to explore the future development trend of energy security level,based on the energy supply,energy use,energy economics,energy and environment constructing evaluation index system of energy security,four dimensions of Beijing's energy security level evaluation analysis.Firstly,the entropy weight method and the positive and negative ideal solution approximation method were used to rate and analyze the energy security level of Beijing from 2008 to 2017.Secondly,the system dynamics model was established,and the core variables affecting Beijing's energy security were predicted and studied with the help of scenario analysis.The entropy weight method and the positive and negative ideal solution approximation method were used to determine the index weight and index value.Based on the scenario setting,the energy security development trend of Beijing during the period of 2018-2030 was predicted and evaluated.The results show that:(1)the energy security level of Beijing showed a good trend from 2008 to 2017.The level of energy supply security fluctuates slightly at first and then declines rapidly.The development of renewable energy and the increase of energy self-sufficiency contribute to the improvement of energy supply security.The safety level of energy use shows a trend of increasing year by year,and the diversification of energy consumption contributes to the improvement of energy use safety.The overall level of energy economic security shows an upward trend.Increasing investment in energy infrastructure and optimizing industrial structure are conducive to improving energy economic security.The level of energy and environmental security tends to decrease first and then rise.Reducing carbon emissions contributes to the improvement of energy and environmental security.(2)during the period of 2018-2030,the core variables of Beijing energy security evaluation show a good trend in the development scenario and a worsening trend in the risk scenario.In the development scenario,total energy consumption will be controlled and energy intensity will be reduced.As natural gas is used more,oil is used less,and carbon dioxide emissions are reduced accordingly.Gasoline consumption was effectively reduced and the average concentration of pm10 was further reduced.In the risk scenario,the total energy consumption exceeds the expected target,the oil consumption is too high,and the development of renewable energy is slow.Energy consumption per unit of GDP is higher than the baseline scenario,carbon dioxide emissions rise,vehicle ownership increases compared with the baseline scenario,and the average concentration of pm10 is higher than the baseline scenario.(3)the energy security level of Beijing during the period of 2018-2030 shows a good trend in the three scenarios.In the three scenarios,the level of energy supply security shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing.Technological progress can improve the local power supply and contribute to the improvement of energy supply security.In the three scenarios,the safety level of energy use fluctuates first,then rises,and then declines,reducing the consumption of oil terminal and domestic gasoline,and reducing energy intensity and per capita consumption,which contributes to the improvement of energy use safety.In the three scenarios,the level of energy economic security shows a trend of rising first and then falling.Increasing the intensity of investment in scientific research is conducive to the improvement of energy economic security.In the three scenarios,the level of energy and environmental security shows a good trend,and the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions contributes to the improvement of energy and environmental security.Finally,it puts forward policy Suggestions on how to improve Beijing's energy security level.