| The hot summer and cold winter(HSCW)climate zone belongs to the non-concentrated heating area in China.The building insulation performance is generally poor,the indoor thermal environment of dwellings is extremely poor,and the residential heating demand is urgent in the in the HSCW region.Residents choose heating by themselves because of rising living standards and heating patterns are diversified in the HSCW region.However,these heating patterns lack scientific guidance leading to low energy efficiency,and improvement is significantly invaid in the local indoor thermal environment.Therefore,in view of the part-time and part-space heating demand of residential buildings,how to match the appropriate heating pattern is the key to improving the indoor thermal environment and reducing the heating energy consumption in the HSCW region.At the same time,studying the randomness and uncertainty of heating demand is also important to evaluation work betweeen supply and demand.Firstly,in this paper,the Markov chain model describes the randomness and uncertainty of the residential building staff,and study the heating demand load characteristics of the HSCW region through Energy Plus.A linear relationship in which energy consumption is positively correlated with thermal comfort index PMV.Secondly,the packaged terminal heat pump,the household gas boiler(the terminal is baseboard),the water to water heat pump(the terminal is low temperature floor radiant)are set at the target building through Energy Plus.This paper assumes that the terminal can achieve ideal regulation,and defines that the limit of the end regulation ability is reflected in the increase of heating time.It compares and analyses the influence degree of the end heating and heating energy consumption of three heating systems on the level of comfort demand and the end regulation ability respectively.The simulation results show that user’s thermal comfort demand has a great impact on energy consumption of decentralized and centralized heating.The smaller the demand for time-sharing heating,the more energy-saving the decentralized heating.With the decrease of latitude,the effect of terminal control ability on energy consumption of heating system becomes more and more obvious,and the more energy-saving the decentralized heating.Finally,the heating matching degree model is proposed to quantitatively evaluate the concentrated and decentralized heating,including the matching degree model at heating terminal and the whole system.For the matching degree model,we recommend to use decentralized heating represented by packaged terminal heat pump in the HSCW region.For the matching model,it is considered that the heating mode in the HSCW region should be diversified,and heating suggestions should be given: The system energy efficiency is daminant at the northern transition zone represented by Nanjing and the centralized heating with high-efficiency is recommended in the HSCW region.The central core area represented by Wuhan need balance the system energy efficiency and regulation ability to select the heating mode in the HSCW region.There are concentrated and decentralized heating exist simultaneously.Decentralized heating is recommended in the southern transition zone represented by Guilin in HSCW region.If centralized heating is selected,it must be improve its regulation ability at heating terminal. |