| Currently,the international power construction business is entering a new round of "golden development period".The power infrastructure construction in emerging countries is weak,and the technology level is backward.They are seeking cooperation with power enterprises in developed countries.Western power construction groups,represented by the United States and the United Kingdom,are stepping up their output in an attempt to occupy the international market.At the same time,China faces a serious problem of overcapacity in power construction.Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China’s installed power generation capacity has increased by 28.89 times,while the average utilization time of power generation equipment in 2018 has reached the lowest level in history.The task of supply-side structural reform is urgent.At the same time,the international power construction business is entering a new round of "golden development period",China’s "go global" strategy steps on a new level.With the active formulation of the "One Belt and One Road" linkage development policy,the government has gradually increased its support for overseas investment.China’s electric power construction enterprises keep up with the trend of the times,respond to national policies,and continuously strengthen their investment in overseas electric power.However,the process of overseas investment involves many risks such as the international landscape,host country’s political,economic and cultural environment,not to be ignored.They have resulted in numberless failures of overseas investment projects.Among them are cases of the blockage of Longyuan Power’s Canadian 100 MW wind power project in 2011,State Grid’s acquisition of AES wind power business in the United States in 2012 and the China-Myanmar hydropower project.To deal with the risk of overseas investment projects,effective identification,evaluation and prevention should be uesd to reduce the possibility of investment failure.This thesis aims to study the risk identification,evaluation and prevention of overseas power investment projects under the PPP model,and to provide a reference for power companies’ decision-making on overseas PPP projects.Based on the risk theory,it first considers the characteristics of overseas investment and the characteristics of the PPP model to classify the risk.The overall risk factors are divided into three categories:risk factors in project approval stage,risk factors in design and construction stage,and group internal risk factors.After that,taking the coal-fired power project in Karba,Indonesia,as an example,it identifies 25 risk indicators of the project and classifies them into 6 categories.Afterwards,it outlines the uncertainty risk assessment methods,compares the pros and cons of the four common methods,and finds that the analytic hierarchy process is the most suitable in the project decision-making stage.The model shows that under the premise of satisfying the consistency of the pairwise comparison matrix,the key risk factors of the power investment project include management operation risk,equipment operation risk,organization risk,public service risk and exchange rate risk.The thesis consults 10 experts to calculate the overall risk membership of the project.The results show that the risk rating of the overseas PPP investment project is 0.7680 at level 1 and level 2,which is a mild risk that is easier to prevent and control.The possibility of high risk of the investment project is small,less than 1.2%,so from the perspective of risk control,it is concluded that the project is suitable for investment.Finally,the thesis combines the risk assessment results and the actual situation of the power construction company to propose prevention and control strategies for the identified key risks.In conclusion,suggestions are put forward for how to improve corporate risk management capacity for higher investment success rate. |
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