Research On Highway Engineering Cost Combination Estimation Method Based On Case-based Reasoning

In recent years,with the rapid development of the transportation industry,the scale of China’s highway construction has expanded rapidly,and investment has increased rapidly.In addition,highway engineering has the characteristics of long construction cycle,complicated and changeable environment,and many influencing factors,which makes the cost of highway engineering have a degree of uncertainty,which all put forward higher requirements for highway engineering investment estimation.The traditional engineering cost estimation method has not been able to meet the development needs of the market economy well.Therefore,constructing a suitable highway engineering cost estimation model and quickly and accurately estimating the engineering cost are of great significance for highway engineering investment control.Based on the current status of highway engineering cost estimation in China,this thesis proposes a reliable and effective highway engineering cost estimation model.First,a variety of commonly used engineering cost estimation methods are discussed in detail,and each estimation method is compared,and the model basis of this thesis is determined as case reasoning.Then according to the construction characteristics and cost characteristics of highway engineering,the influencing factors of highway engineering cost are analyzed and screened,and a highway engineering cost characteristic index system is constructed.On the basis of the above research,the basic model of case-based reasoning is used,combined with grey relational analysis and weighted Euclidean distance method,to form a case-based reasoning highway engineering cost combination estimation model.Follow the case-based reasoning process to represent the cases in turn;use SPSS software to complete the primary case screening,and use the gray correlation analysis and weighted Euclidean distance method to calculate the similarity to complete the advanced case screening;respectively,modify the gray correlation analysis and weighted Euclidean distance.The two single models are combined to form a combined model,and the case is revised again;the case is saved.Finally,the actual data of the engineering case is substituted into the model,and a case study is performed.The evaluation criterion for estimating the good or bad is the error value between the estimated value and the actual value of the target case.The results show that the combined model based on case-based reasoning is more powerful than the single model,and the applicability and reliability of the method based on case-based reasoning for engineering cost combinations are verifiedThe combined estimation method can solve the estimation problems in the investment decision stage of highway engineering in a targeted manner,and plays an important role in cost management in the early stage of construction and reducing engineering risks.