Intelligent Prediction And Control Effect Evaluation Of Foundation Test Cost Of Transmission Line In The New Electric Power System Reform

With the continuous deepening of the new electric power system reform,the profit model of power grid enterprises will change from earning electricity price difference to "Permitted Cost+Reasonable Income",and reducing cost will become a direct way for power grid enterprises to improve profits.As the premise of transmission line project construction,foundation test cost is an important part of transmission line project construction cost,which will be reduced in the new electric power system reform.However,the empirical pricing method is often used to calculate the foundation test cost in the industry,which leads to the low efficiency of capital use,which is not conducive to the cost management transformation of enterprises facing the environment of the new electric power system reform,and even affects the construction quality of transmission line projects.Therefore,how to achieve accurate prediction and effective control of the cost of transmission line foundation test has become an urgent issue to be solved in the current transmission line engineering construction process.Firstly,this paper analyzes the content of foundation test cost from two aspects of cost composition and basic pricing method,establishes the cost structure system of transmission line foundation test,and uses EBS theory to realize the decomposition of "cost process"two-way dimension,which is conducive to realize the hierarchical analysis and control of cost,and lays the foundation for the calculation of foundation test cost in the future.Secondly,based on the background of the new electric power system reform and the data space of transmission line foundation test,the cost influence set of transmission line foundation test is formed from the macro and micro levels.By using fishbone diagram and fuzzy threshold method,the key factors affecting the foundation cost are screened out,and the key influencing factors system is constructed.Thirdly,this paper establishes an intelligent prediction model of transmission line foundation test cost based on CS-SVR.By comparing the error with multiple linear regression,BP neural network and other prediction methods,the example proves that CS-SVR intelligent prediction model has higher accuracy and calculation speed.Finally,a cost control mechanism of transmission line foundation test under the background of the new electric power system reform is proposed,and the control effect is evaluated.On the one hand,the activity-based costing method is used to calculate the cost of foundation test,and based on the CS-SVR intelligent prediction model of foundation test cost established in this paper,the cost early warning interval of foundation test is determined,so as to get through the "calculation-prediction-early warning" path of cost.On the other hand,the evaluation index system of cost control effect is constructed,and the evaluation model of foundation test cost control effect based on combination weighting method and improved matter-element extension is established.Taking some foundation tests of transmission line engineering after the new electric power system reform as examples,the process of"calculation-prediction-early warning" of test cost is analyzed,and the cost correction measures are proposed to realize the control optimization of foundation test cost.This paper focuses on the research on the foundation test cost of transmission line under the background of the new electric power system reform,fills in the blank of the research in this field.The intelligent cost prediction model,management and control mechanism and its effect evaluation model are of high accuracy,which can be applied to the field of transmission line engineering cost management,which is helpful to realize the lean of transmission line engineering cost under the background of the new electric power system reform and promote the standardization construction of power grid infrastructure.