| With the improvement of the urban road network and the increase of its service life,various roads in the city are damaged to varying degrees,which reduces the traffic efficiency and driving experience of the road.However,the maintenance funds of the management department are always insufficient,and how to use the limited maintenance funds on the sections that are in urgent need of maintenance is the most important problem to be solved by the road management department.Based on the urban road of Shihe City,this paper systematically studies the decision-making problem of urban asphalt pavement network.According to the actual characteristics of regional roads,the factors such as pavement performance,traffic volume,road age and road grade are analyzed,and the indexes that have important influence on road network maintenance decision-making are determined by combining practical engineering experience with expert questionnaire survey,and the index system of road network maintenance decision-making is constructed.Aiming at the evaluation indexes in the evaluation system which can not be quantitatively analyzed,this paper adopts the method of subjective and objective connection to study the influence of various factors on decision-making,and combines the method of curve fitting to normalize the standard and transform it into a percentage system.According to the actual survey data of pavement structure composition,traffic volume,road age and other factors,the binomial function and exponential function are used for fitting.Network maintenance decision-making indicators include pavement performance(P1),pavement strength(P2),pavement structure(P3),traffic(P4),age(P5)road,road in the position in network(P6)six indicators,through the Delphi method combined with analytic hierarchy process(ahp)to determine the index weight for [P1,P2,P3,P4,P5,P6] = [0.51366,0.19530,0.12465,0.09052,0.04833,0.02754].Based on the principle of matter-element analysis,on the basis of the standardized assignment and weight of each index,the correlation analysis of each index and the maintenance section was completed,and the ranking of the maintenance urgency of each section was determined.According to the characteristics of pavement performance data of Shihezi city,several common prediction models are analyzed and compared,and the prediction model of urban road pavement performance based on grey theory is determined.Through the study of decision tree theory,based on the results of road performance prediction and the maintenance urgency of each road section,the road section for maintenance and the corresponding road maintenance measures are determined,and the road maintenance plan for Shihezi City in the next year is formulated.The practicability of the model is verified.The research results of this paper can be used for the maintenance decision of urban roads in Shihezi City,which is of great significance to the maintenance and management of urban roads in China. |
