Analysis Of Direct Effect And Spillover Effect Of Energy Intensity Between Provinces In China

Energy is the lifeblood of a country’s economic development and an important material guarantee for improving people’s living standards.After entering the 21st century,China’s economy is developing at a rapid pace.The demand for energy and raw materials is increasing,and the dependence on imports from the international market is also growing.Energy has become an important factor that cannot be ignored in China’s economic development.The 2017 BP World Energy Statistical Yearbook shows that China is now the world’s largest energy consumer,with energy consumption accounting for 23%of the world,energy consumption accounting for 27%of the world’s total,and China’s 13th Five-Year Plan.Clearly put forward specific targets for energy conservation and emission reduction.In order to solve the problem of energy efficiency that is vital in the pursuit of high-quality economic development,it is necessary to clarify the effects and mechanisms of various factors on energy intensity changes.There have been related studies,although some consider spatial effects,most of them use static spatial lag model(SAR)or static spatial error model(SEM),and also do not consider the path dependence based on spatial measurement model.This paper adopts a more general dynamic space Dubin model,which not only analyzes the influence of energy intensity and its influencing factors on the energy intensity of the target area from the perspective of direct effect and spillover effect,but also from the perspective of long-term effects and short-term effects.The analysis of energy intensity and identification of industrial structure,economic development level,urbanization level,foreign direct investment,external dependence and technological progress are all important factors influencing China’s energy intensity,and the changes in various influencing factors will not only affect the region’s energy.The intensity has an impact,and it will also have spillover effects on the surrounding areas,which will not only affect the energy intensity of the region and surrounding areas in the short term,but also affect the energy intensity of the region and surrounding areas in the long run.In addition,this paper also confirms the spatial distribution pattern of China’s energy intensity in the northwest and southeast through the spatial correlation test.