Traffic Demand Analysis And Mode Selection Of Urban Agglomerations

Urban agglomeration has become the key development target in the process of urbanization in China.This paper combines the transportation demand of urban agglomeration with residents’ travel mode selection.comprehensively considers the combination of transportation demand and time cost,which is helpful for urban agglomeration to carry out transportation planning with emphasis in the future,so as to achieve the coordination between transportation and different industrial development.At present,Chinese transportation planning mainly focuses on the construction of road network model,but the research on the different demand and mode allocation of future transportation is rarely involved.Based on this background,this paper takes Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration as an example to quantitatively and qualitatively analyze the future passenger and cargo transportation demands and the considerations of travellers in choosing different modes of travel,so as to provide directional guidance for the future transportation planning of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.First of all,starting from the development status of Chinese urban agglomerations,emphatically focuses on the relationship between the industrial situation and the transportation industry in urban agglomeration.Secondly,it expounds the contributions of many scholars at home and abroad to different perspectives on the traffic development of urban agglomerations,and uses it as a reference for writing this paper.After that,it analyzes the characteristics of residents’ travel and the characteristics of integrated transportation system in the transportation of domestic and foreign mature urban agglomeration.Then,the demand characteristics of passengers and freight in urban agglomerations are discussed and the methods are determined.Three smoothing indices and nonlinear regression are used as prediction models to analyze the development trend of transportation demand in the next three years,and finally the prediction results of different methods are combined to eliminate the shortcomings of different prediction results to improve the accuracy of the results.In terms of transportation mode selection,the travel distance is divided according to different lengths,and then the residents’ travel process is divided into four parts: from the departure place to the departure station,waiting at the departure station,waiting for the car,taking the car,and arriving at the station to the final destination.At different stages,the time spent in each of the above stages is quantified to establish a generalized travel cost function,which is finally solved by the improved Logit model.Finally,taking Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration as an example,this paper makes an empirical study,and the suggestions for the transportation mode selection of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration were put forward.It can also provide the reference for traffic demand analysis and mode selection of other urban agglomerations.