Study On Intercity Highway Passenger Trip Generation And Distribution Forecast For Urban Agglomeration

With the development of economic, there are firstly three big urban agglomerations formed in the most developed area in our country, which leads to other ones. The growth of the population and the inflation in the district is an incontrolable trend, which will lead to more frequent traffic connection between the cities, so studying on the intercity highway passenger trip of urban agglomeration transportation will become one of the main contents of its planning. As the passenger trip generation and distribution a re the important constituent of urban agglomeration transportation planning, therefore it will be worthful to construct a reasonable forcast for urban agglomeration intercity highway passenger trip generation and distribution according to the characteristics of urban agglomeration.Based on the analysises of relative research achievements, this paper establishes intercity highway passenger trip generation and distribution models for urban agglomeration considering with the characteristics of it. Firstly, the thesis elaborates passenger transportation in urban agglomeration by giving out the definition of urban agglomeration and analyzing its formative process. Secondly, the main factors affecting the demands of urban agglomeration passenger transportation are presented through summarizing its characteristics.The paper insistes that urban agglomeration intercity highway passenger trip generation forecast can't use the time series method purely. It should fully combine all kinds of effective information concluded in the different forcast methods, that is make a use of combination forcast like regression analysis and elasticity coefficient method, which is considering correlation analysis and the analogy analysis.In order to increase the forecast precision, the author selects the BP nerve network as the tool of non-linear combinatorial forecasFinally, discussion on shortcomings of the traditional double restraint gravity model, the paper proposes to introduce a modification coefficient in dual-constrained gravity model to modify distribution caculated by gravity model. Case study on the distribution model that proves its advantage compared to the traditional one.