Research On Dissipative Propagation Mechanism Of Sudden Passenger Flow In Urban Rail Transit

How to ensure the safe and efficient operation of urban rail transit system in the case of sudden passenger flow is a problem that the management department pays close attention to.Therefore,based on the analysis of the characteristics and causes of sudden passenger flow in rail transit,this paper takes the sudden passenger flow in rail transit caused by the end of major events as the research object.The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of sudden passenger flow are studied based on historical data.A quantitative model of sudden passenger flow is established to study the influence factors of dissipative propagation.The method of calculating and distributing the total demand for sudden passenger flow is summarized.A CA-based simulation model for the propagation of passenger flow in urban rail transit is constructed,and the propagation mechanism of sudden passenger flow are studied through actual case simulation.The main contents are as follows:(1)Analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of sudden passenger flow in rail transit and the characteristics of dissipation and propagationBased on the definition and characteristics,classification and definition of sudden passenger flow as the starting point,the basic characteristics of sudden passenger flow are analyzed and summarized.Based on historical data,the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of sudden passenger flow in rail transit are studied.By constructing the topological structure diagram of passenger flow path,the dissipation propagation of sudden passenger flow is described,the dissipation propagation quantization model is established,and the dissipation rate disturbance factors are studied.(2)Summarizing a method for estimating and allocating the total demand of rail transit for sudden passenger flowAiming at the sudden passenger flow,a calculation method based on occupancy rate and venue capacity is proposed,and path selection probability model is set up.Combined with an example,the sudden passenger demand after the concert was calculated,the time-sharing inbound quantity was estimated.The example shows that the method can estimate the total passenger flow accurately,and the error is only 4.6%.(3)Building a CA-based simulation model for the propagation of sudden passenger flow in urban rail transitAnalyze the cause of the congestion caused by the network-based propagation of passenger flow,construct a set of cellular state parameter sets that can reflect the degree of station congestion,and establish a system dynamic model of train full load rate.Define the accurate and reasonable evolution rules,and establish station,line,and network-level evaluation indicators to quantify and analyze the process of passenger flow propagation.(4)Studying the propagation mechanism of passenger flowA star concert held was taken as an example,and the passenger flow evolution model is simulated with MATLAB,which verifies the model’s accuracy.The simulation results was analyzed and the dissipation propagation characteristics of sudden passenger flow was studied.Taking the non-activity days of the same period as a comparison,the sudden passenger flow with different values was applied to the passenger flow generating station,and the propagation mechanism of sudden passenger flow was studied.