| In recent years,China Railway Corporation has pushed forward the supply side reform,deepening and increasing the effective supply of railway freight transportation in order to realize the "cost reduction and efficiency increase" of railway freight market."Public to rail" policy provides development opportunities for the railway freight market,but in the freight market,highways still occupy a large share.For the railway sector,reducing logistics costs,reducing costs and increasing efficiency,and gaining more market share is a long-lasting battle.As the main adjustment index of transportation market,railway transportation price is very important for railway department to win the long-term war.The application of price strategy directly determines the demand of railway freight.Railway transport enterprises need to fully understand the economic characteristics of freight market.The analysis of the price elasticity of railway freight can help railway transport enterprises to understand the characteristics of railway freight market more deeply and formulate more flexible freight strategy.The research content of this paper is divided into the following points:(1)This paper introduces the relevant theoretical methods of the paper,mainly including railway freight price mechanism,railway freight price elasticity theory,railway freight price floating theory.(2)In order to explore the price elasticity of railway freight,first of all,from a micro perspective,the price elasticity model of railway freight transport under different categories is established by using panel data modeling method.Taking G Railway Group as an example,the individual fixed effect model is established to obtain the price elasticity of freight transport under different categories.The results show that the price elasticity and freight volume show a certain relationship The price elasticity of goods with large volume is less;there is no obvious relationship between price elasticity and freight number.(3)Time series analysis of railway freight volume based on X-12-ARIMA.According to the volume,The railway freight market is divided into bulk freight market and scattered freight market.The freight volume of different types of freight transport market is studied.Taking G Railway Group as an example,the fluctuation of freight volume is explored by using X-12-ARIMA and HP Filtering decomposition method,and the reason of freight volume change is further explored by using gray correlation method.(4)Study on the transport price elasticity of different types of railway goods.Based on the co integration theory,this paper explores the freight price elasticity of different types of goods,and introduces Box-cox model and local adjustment model as a contrast to explore the long-term price elasticity and short-term price elasticity of different types of goods under the three methods.(5)A study on the freight rate fluctuation of railway bulk cargo in light and peak seasons.The partial least square method is used to get the bulk freight rate function,and the floating model of railway bulk freight rate in the light and peak seasons is established.The validity of the floating model of railway bulk freight rate in the light and peak seasons is verified by an example. |
