Research On Evaluation And Forecast Of Development Level Of Prefabricated Buildings In Anhui Province

In recent years,prefabricated building is strongly supported by the state and the government because of its unique advantages in efficiency,quality,environmental protection and so on.Various provinces and cities have promulgated a number of relevant policies to support the development of prefabricated building.Anhui Province,as one of the cities with an early start of prefab construction,has been committed to the construction of pilot provinces and demonstration bases of prefab construction since 2014.It has accumulated a lot of experience in the project practice and vigorously promoted the reform of prefab construction technology,by the end of 2019,the prefabricated building total building area of more than 66 million square meters.At the same time,the Anhui Provincial Government has also issued guidelines and related policies in terms of safeguard measures and development goals for prefabricated buildings,providing a strong guarantee for the development of prefabricated buildings.However,because the development of prefabricated buildings is a comprehensive and complex system,its development process is influenced by many factors.At present,there is no way to assess the level of development of prefabricated buildings in Anhui Province.Comprehensive evaluation of its development level has become one of the urgent problems to be solved in the development of prefabricated buildings in Anhui Province.Based on this,this dissertation combines the development status of prefabricated buildings in Anhui Province to formulate a scientific and reasonable prefabricated building development level evaluation index system,and predicts the development trend of prefabricated buildings in Anhui Province in the next few years,which can provide a reference for government decision-making and is of great importance.First of all,this dissertation summarizes the research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars in prefabricated buildings,sorts out the development history of domestic and foreign prefabricated buildings,and analyzes the policy support and development scale of prefabricated building in Anhui Province.Secondly,20 evaluation indexes are determined from five levels of "driving force(D),pressure(P),state(S),influence(I),response(R)",and the evaluation index system of prefabricated building development level based on DPSIR model in Anhui Province is established.The weight results are determined by AHP and entropy weight method,and uses the comprehensive index method to analyze the comprehensive development level and the development trend of five levels of prefabricated buildings in Anhui Province from 2014 to 2019.Finally,based on the evaluation results of the development level of prefabricated buildings in Anhui Province from 2014 to 2019,this dissertation uses the GM(1,1)prediction model to predict the development trend of prefabricated buildings in Anhui Province from 2020 to 2025.And from the five perspectives of "improving the policy and regulation system,strengthening the evaluation standard system,improving the personnel training mechanism,increasing investment in technological innovation and enhancing market recognition",the dissertation suggests countermeasures to promote the development of prefabricated buildings in Anhui Province.The dissertation results show that:(1)The state-level indicators best reflect the development level of prefabricated buildings in Anhui Province.The development level of prefabricated buildings in Anhui Province has continued to rise from 2014 to 2019.The comprehensive evaluation index rose from 0.2401 in 2014 to 0.7522 in 2019.the development level has been transformed from "lower" to "higher" in three stages,in which driving force,status,influence,and response layer indicators all show an upward trend,while pressure layer indicators show a fluctuating downward trend.(2)The GM(1,1)prediction model is suitable for the prediction of the development level of prefabricated buildings in Anhui Province.The prediction results show that the comprehensive development index of prefabricated buildings in Anhui Province will reach 0.7800,0.8163,0.8561,0.8934,0.9192,0.9431 from 2020 to 2025,realizing the transformation of the development level from "higher" to "very high".The prefabricated buildings in Anhui Province will continue to maintain an upward trend in the next few years,which is consistent with the key tasks and future development goals of the construction industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.Figure[ll] table [22] reference[101]...