Research On Expert Group Decision Making Of Engineering Consulting Think Tank Based On Conflict Resolution Theory

In recent years,the pace of infrastructure construction in China has accelerated,various major projects and complex projects have been implemented one after another,and engineering construction generally presents the characteristics of scale,group and complexity.The group decision-making in the whole life cycle of engineering projects has changed from occasional to regular,and the phenomenon that the failure of major engineering construction or operation caused by the mistake of decision-making often occurs,which has resulted in losses to the national economy.Engineering consulting industry,as an intellectual consulting organization serving engineering project decision-making management,is transforming into a new specialized think tank,which plays an important role in avoiding decision-making risks of major engineering projects.However,in the process of expert group decision-making carried out by engineering consulting think tank,the ambiguity of decision-making issues,multiple decision-making subjects,complex decision-making process and diverse decision-making methods are very likely to lead to conflicts of opinions among decision makers,resulting in inefficient decision-making.Therefore,it is important to carry out research on decision-making and conflict resolution of expert groups in engineering consulting think tanks to promote scientific decision-making in engineering construction management.This study aims to dissolve group decision-making conflicts,promote decision makers to reach consensus promptly,and improve the efficiency and quality of decision making,then analyzes the issues of group decision-making of experts in think tanks of engineering consulting,introduces the complexity,influencing factors and problems of group decision-making,and sorts out four realistic situations of group decision-making.On this basis,a group decision-making and conflict resolution model is constructed and applied to actual engineering project cases to verify the scientificity and applicability of the model.The main results of the study are as follows:(1)The problem of group decision-making of engineering consulting professional think tanks is described systematically.It analyzes the target issues of decision making by engineering consulting professional think tanks from three perspectives of different scales,different stages and different properties.It explains the complexity of group decision-making from four aspects of decision-making problems,decision makers,decision-making processes and decision-making methods.On this basis,the influencing factors and existing problems of group decision-making are summarized,four basic situations of group decision-making are given,and the necessity of the research is clarified.(2)A model of group decision-making and conflict resolution in engineering consulting professional think tanks is established.First,the applicability of the model is analyzed based on making basic assumptions and determining the overall framework of conflict resolution.The model established in this paper mainly consists of three parts:preference structure analysis of decision makers,measurement of the comprehensive conflict degree between decision makers and groups and between groups,and the conflict resolution.Firstly,performed the group clustering based on similarity,and the large group participating in decision-making is divided into several small groups.Then,based on the distance entropy model,the weights of decision makers between clusters and within clusters are initially calculated,and the level of comprehensive conflict degree between decision makers and groups and between groups is obtained.Finally,considering the time constraint,a conflict resolution model combining the sequence difference method and the preference correction method is established.(3)A case study was carried out by taking the conceptual design of a river ecological treatment project as an example.In the decision-making situation of the actual project’s conceptual plan design,the preference information of 20 review experts for the plan is obtained.Based on the group decision-making and conflict resolution model of the engineering consulting professional think tank established in this paper,the weight value and conflict level value of each review expert are calculated.The conflict threshold and the maximum number of negotiations for this group decision are set,the conflict resolution is carried out in stages,and the reasons for the change in the ranking of plans before and after conflict resolution are analyzed.Through the case analysis of the actual project,the applicability of the proposed model is verified.