Research On The Change Characteristics,Influencing Factors And Promotion Paths Of Urban Resilience In The Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

With the evolution of urban spatial pattern,urban systems are closely linked and increasingly complicated,and the risks they face are increasingly diversified.As one of the regions with the highest degree of urbanization agglomeration,the Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration has been confronted with severe challenges caused by frequent natural disasters and public security incidents in recent years.In order to promote the toughness of cities against the uncertain risk ability,this article from the economic,ecological,social,and four dimensions of infrastructure,build the evaluation index system of city toughness,using entropy model to Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration of 2006 ～ 2018 of spatial and temporal variations of resilience level,using exploratory spatial data analysis verify the city resilience level features of space agglomeration,on the basis of building space panel regression model(SAR)to explore the influence factors of Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration in resilience level.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)Spatiotemporal evolution of urban resilience in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.From the perspective of time evolution,from 2006 to 2018,the urban resilience level of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration showed a significant upward trend,and the gap between the regional resilience levels has shortened overall.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the urban resilience level of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration presents a spatial distribution pattern of "high in the east and low in the west".The number of resilient cities follows the evolution pattern of " Pyramid-trapezoid-olive-inverted trapezoid ".From the perspective of the resilience system,the development of ecological resilience and social resilience in the urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta was lagging behind.(2)Spatial agglomeration characteristics of urban resilience level in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.From 2006 to 2018,the overall Moran’s I index of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration showed a fluctuating and positive overall change.The urban resilience level distribution of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration showed a clear spatial agglomeration state.The local Moran’s I scatter plot was used to aggregate 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta The states are divided into four types: high-high,low-low,low-high,and high-low.(3)Factors affecting urban resilience in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.According to the regression results of the spatial error model,it was found that urbanization factors,industrial factors,market factors,and government support factors had a significant positive impact on the improvement of urban resilience levels,And market factors>urbanization factors>government factors>industrial factors,while the increase of urban population factors would inhibit the urban resilience levels in the Yangtze River Delta region.(4)The improvement path of the urban resilience level of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.Promoting regional ecological security construction,promoting social resilience construction,adjusting regional industrial structure layout,enhancing government resilience construction efforts,and promoting regional diversified exchanges and cooperation were the main ways to improve the city’s resilience level in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.