Study On Public Building Life Cycle Carbon Emissions Prediction Model

The carbon emissions of public buildings occupy a large proportion in the construction industry and have high research value.However,the calculation method of the carbon emission of the whole life cycle of the building is very complicated,which brings great difficulties to the quantitative research of carbon emission.This thesis is funded by the "13th Five-Year Plan" national key research project(Grant No.: 2016 YFC0700200),this paper aims to study the prediction and accounting model of the carbon emissions of public buildings,simplify the calculation process of carbon emissions,so that architects can master the carbon emissions of buildings in the architectural design stage and adjust the architectural design.This article sorts out a large number of references at home and abroad,clarifies the goal,scope and phase division of the whole life cycle assessment theory.It compares and analyzes the two methods of carbon emission calculation of inventory statistical method and information model method.The building carbon emission factor library also compares different energy consumption data collection methods,and finally uses the Designbuilder software simulation method for energy consumption calculation.This paper studies the carbon emissions and forecasting accounting model from the perspective of public buildings.According to the classification of building functions and building masses,the carbon emission characteristics of the four phases of the entire life cycle of public buildings are analyzed.Then,from the perspective of the architect,the influence variables of carbon emissions of public buildings were discussed from the four aspects of building climate division,building orientation,building physical factors,and heat transfer coefficient of the envelope structure.Finally,high-rise office buildings were selected from 13 types of public buildings as the research object of the carbon emission prediction model.This paper collects and calculates 30 high-rise office buildings in Tianjin.Their full life-cycle carbon emissions are between 40 ～ 90 kg CO2 / m2 · year,of which the construction operation and maintenance phase accounts for the largest proportion,reaching 89.3%;the second is the building material production phase,Accounting for about 10%;the carbon emissions of building construction,demolition and recycling are relatively small,1.78% and 1.43% respectively.Then,based on the calculation results of carbon emissions,this paper used correlation analysis,scatter plots,and collinear diagnosis to screen variables,and finally determined 12 building parameters as independent variables of the model.Then,a support vector regression method was combined with R language to build a carbon emission prediction model for office buildings,and a "building life cycle carbon emission accounting software" was built.Through a comprehensive research on the carbon emissions of the whole life cycle of the building,this paper constructs the carbon emission prediction model of the office building,realizes the control of the carbon emissions of the building during the design phase,and provides a low-carbon design aid for the building designer.