Research On Comprehensive Evaluation Of Engineering Project Risk From The Perspective Of Bearing Capacity

Engineering project risk management is an issue that has long been a major concern of many scholars.With the gradual expansion of the project scale and the coordination and integration of building functions,the impact of large-scale engineering projects on its locations becomes more and more significant.How can we identify,evaluate and manage the external risk factors that may be caused by the construction of engineering projects? Does the region have the capacity to carry external risk? What methods can be adopted to improve the risk bearing capacity of the region to the project? This thesis attempts to introduce the concept of “bearing capacity” from other disciplines into the field of engineering project risk management,so as to provide another perspective for engineering project risk management.The thesis is divided into five chapters.The first chapter is to explain the current research background,understand the actual needs and seek the feasibility of the integration of bearing capacity and project risk management on the basis of relevant domestic and foreign research.Then,it expounds the thoughts of system view and the evaluation methods of bearing capacity.It also expresses the concept of Risk Bearing Capacity of engineering project.It compares and analyzes the differences between engineering project risk management process and the traditional management process from the perspective of bearing capacity as well.What’s more,it explains how to theoretically determine whether the risk bearing capacity of the regional engineering project has been breached.Next,a risk evaluation system from the perspective of bearing capacity has been constructed from three aspects,which are the project internal risk management,the external risk bearing capacity evaluation and the obstacle factor diagnosis.This system uses G1-gray cluster analysis to evaluate the internal risks of engineering project.The traditional internal risk management process is applied as a prerequisite for the study of external risk bearing capacity.On the basis of the previous study on bearing capacity,a “SCS-ELS-ENS”(socially suitable—ecologically suitable—economically suitable)evaluation index system is conducted.It adopts AHP-entropy weight-TOPSIS-coupling coordination degree model to evaluate the external risk bearing capacity of the region that may be caused by the specific project construction.By constructing the obstacle factor diagnosis model of the risk bearing capacity of an engineering project and identifying the main obstacle factors to serve for improving the risk bearing capacity of the project.Finally,take the Jiafu Center in Z district of GZ city as an example for case analysis,the homogeneity competition between the project and the surrounding area projects is fierce,and it is suitable for case analysis of the project from the perspective of bearing capacity.The conclusions of the research are as follows:(1)The internal risk evaluation value of the Jiafu Center is 1.377,which belongs to the low risk and meets the prerequisites for evaluating the external risk bearing capacity of the project in Z district;(2)The evaluation value of the external risk bearing capacity of Jiafu Center in Z disrict is 0.7044,which belongs to the second category—well-coordinated type,characterized by the actual risk bearing capacity ARBC being greater than the theoretical bearing capacity TRBC;(3)Through analyzing the obstacle factors,it is found that the main obstacle to the bearing capacity comes from the economic subsystem and the ecological subsystem,so reasonable expropriation compensation and promotion can be adopted,linkage of business circles can be promoted,the suitable business formats can be selected and the construction management can be strengthened to promote a further improvement of capacity of the region to bear the project risks.