| With the development of autonomous vehicles,automobile enterprise have developed,tested and marketed autonomous vehicles extensively.Autonomous vehicles not only can improve traffic efficiency,but also have great potential in reducing accidents,human driving duties,and reducing costs,as many researches concluded.The emergence of autonomous vehicles has brought a series of opportunities and challenges to cities.At present,little is known about the impact of autonomous vehicles on urban transportation systems,spatial structure and land use with empirical evidences.It is necessary for urban planning section to conduct pre-researches on the emergence of autonomous vehicles in advance to cope with forth coming of the autonomous vehicle.The main purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of autonomous vehicles on urban transportation systems and job-housing spatial distribution.It is divided into three sub-goals.Firstly,to analyze and summarize the impact of autonomous vehicles on urban traffic efficiency.Secondly,in the context of autonomous vehicles,to analyzed the preferences of urban residents on commuting modes and residence location choices,and finally,to predict changes in the housing distribution and traffic demand under the background of autonomous vehicles in the future.Based on the planned road network and predicted traffic demand of Shehong City in2030,this paper uses microscopic traffic simulation to analyze the changes in urban traffic efficiency under different autonomous vehicle penetration rates.Then,based on the traffic simulation results,a choice experiemnt on residents’ preferences on commuting and housing preference under the background of autonomous driving vehicles is designed.After administration,a Nested Logit model was constructed to quantify residents’ preferences on commuting and housing.Finally,the NL model is used to predict the changes in housing and traffic demand in Shehong City under the background of autonomous vehicles.The main conclusions are as follows: 1)When the penetration rate of autonomous vehicles is below 20%,it has little impact on the traffic efficiency.When the penetration rate is between 20% and 50%,the traffic efficiency of the city begins to improve.When the penetration is more than 50%,the traffic efficiency increases further.2)In small and medium-sized cities,housing prices,walking time from residences to schools and hospitals,travel time,travel expenses,time outside the vehicle,and parking costs are the main factors affecting residents’ commute and housing choices.The walking distance from home to park is not significant.3)In the long term,autonomous vehicles will attract people who commute by walking and public transportation,in addition to the original inhabitants who commute by cars.This will increase the demand for cars.On the other hand,autonomous vehicles are more efficient than manually-driving cars,thus the accessibility in peripheral areas increases and the probability of residents choose to live in those areas increases accordingly.As a result,even in scenarios with a high penetration rate of autonomous vehicles,the traffic in the traffic corridors and some major nodes in the road network become more congested,as shown in the case city.This paper uses micro-traffic simulation,SP survey and NL model to study housing choices and commuter traffic in the context of autonomous vehicles,which makes up for the lack of quantitative researches on the impact of autonomous vehicles on cities.Summarization of the changing laws of urban traffic efficiency under different autonomous vehicle penetration rates provides a reference for the reasonable promotion strategies of autonomous vehicles in cities in the future.The study results reflect the changes in macro-urban spatial structure and traffic demand from the perspective of microscopic job-housing commuting behavior and residence selection,this makes this study a useful initial research on how urban planning secrtion should react to the development of new vehicles in the future. |
PDF Full Text Request