Research On Dynamic Evaluation Of Construction Progress Risk Of Prefabricated Buildings

As national policies continue to help transform and upgrade the construction industry,prefabricated building are developing rapidly.However,from the current state of application,the advantages of its intensive production have not been further highlighted and delays in the actual construction schedule have occurred.Moreover,construction schedule risk management in prefabricated building is mostly focused on the assessment of qualitative indicators and static analysis of risks,with less comprehensive research from quantitative indicators and dynamic trends of risks.To this end,this paper conducts research with the aim of improving construction schedule risk management to provide new evaluation ideas and references for construction schedule risk management in prefabricated building.This paper proposes a new dynamic evaluation model for construction schedule risk by dissecting the problems of construction schedule risk management in prefabricated building and combining the shortcomings of existing research.Firstly,through a review of the research background and current situation,we define the concepts related to prefabricated building and their construction schedule risks,further elaborate on the mechanism of construction schedule risks in prefabricated building,and introduce and analyse the relevant theories and methods.Then,using a combination of literature and typical cases,40 risk factor indicators were obtained and 20 risk factor indicators were selected using the SNA-related centrality as the main principle.Combining the characteristics of prefabricated,the evaluation index system is constructed and subdivided into quantitative and qualitative indicators.Secondly,SPA theory is introduced as the theoretical basis for the construction of the model,which is used to determine the risk level and dynamic change trend,and clearly focus on the counter potential area risk factors as the management focus.Finally,based on the SPA model data,the SD simulation model was established to verify the feasibility of the model in the context of the JM project,and to conduct sensitivity analysis on the counter potential zone risk indicators and propose countermeasures to provide a decision basis and reference for construction schedule risk management.This paper establishes a dynamic evaluation model for the construction schedule risk of prefabricated building based on SPA theory,which can predict the dynamic trend of risk and risk level of deterministic and uncertain factors in a comprehensive manner.Through example comparison and verification,the model not only provides a new evaluation idea for construction schedule risk management of prefabricated building,but also provides a targeted theoretical basis for scientific decision-making on construction schedule risk management,thus promoting the development of prefabricated building.