Study On The Influencing Factors And Prediction Of Civil Building Floor Space In China

In 2018,the building energy consumption accounts for more than 20% of the national energy consumption.Building floor space is the main driving force of energy consumption and material demand in the construction sector.China is experiencing rapid urbanization process and large-scale urban construction,and the total floor space of civil building is still increasing rapidly,which will lead to a sharp increase in energy consumption and carbon emissions of the construction industry,and bring huge pressure on resources and environment.Therefore,the total amount control of building floor space is an important content to achieve the goal of building energy conservation.It is necessary to clarify the core factors that drive the growth of civil building floor space,determine the influence degree of each influencing factor on the civil building floor space,and reasonably predict the development trend of civil building floor space under the different changing trend of influencing factors.This work can reasonably guide the work of energy conservation and emission reduction,contribute to make the decision of sustainable development and maintain the rational development of construction industry.Through investigation in a large number of official statistical yearbooks,this thesis combs out the problems about the data of civil building floor space in China’s statistical system.So as to clarify the historical development and basic status of various civil buildings,this thesis obtains the basic data of urban residential building floor space,rural residential building floor space and public building floor space in China through correction calculation and comparative demonstration.Through qualitative research,this thesis analyzes the factors affecting the growth of civil building floor space,including: population,old dependency ratio,per capita GDP,economic structure.The vector autoregressive model is used to analyze the dynamic interaction between the corresponding influencing factors and the urban residential building,rural residential building,public building floor space.Through impulse response function and variance decomposition,the mechanism of influencing factors and building floor space is understood,and the key influencing factors are identified.It is found that urban population and per capita GDP have a significant and sustained positive pulling effect on urban residential building floor space,and the development of the tertiary industry can have a short-term promoting effect on urban residential building floor space.The growth of rural population and per capita GDP will also bring obvious same directional change of the scale of rural residential building floor space.The development of the tertiary industry has a negative effect on the rural residential building floor space.Population,GDP per capita and the development of the tertiary industry also play a significant role in promoting the public building floor space.The increase of old dependency ratio has a negative effect on the growth of urban residential building floor space,rural residential building floor space and public building floor space,but the effect is not significant.After that,using stepwise regression,partial least square regression,S-curve,logarithmic function as well as combination prediction method,through the comparison of various models,this thesis establishes the optimal prediction model of urban residential building floor space,rural residential building floor space and public building floor space,and verifies the accuracy of the model through error test.Finally,based on the scenario analysis method,this thesis describes three development scenarios of civil building floor space which is called benchmark scenario,control scenario and strict control scenario.Then it makes parameter settings for the development of influencing factors in the three scenarios to predict the urban residential building floor space,rural residential building floor space and public building floor space from 2020 to 2050.It is found that by 2050,the total building floor space of civil building in China will reach 68.4 billion square meters in the strict control scenario,71.8 billion square meters in the control scenario and 83.2 billion square meters in the benchmark scenario.