Research On Prediction Model And Influencing Factors Of Urban Residential Building Energy Consumption

Construction, tied with the industrial and transportation for three areas of energyconsumption, is also an important source of greenhouse gas emissions. With thedevelopment of China’s national economy in recent years, it results to the proportion ofbuilding energy consumption share of energy consumption increase year by year. Theimprovement of people’s material life and the pursuit of quality of life, leads to thegrowth of energy consumption of residential building significantly, which provide muchwider energy saving space. Therefore, carrying out the investigation of the energyconsumption of residential buildings, researching the influencing factors for residentialbuildings energy consumption, and establishing the forecasting model for residentialbuilding energy consumption accordingly to predict the future development trends, andplan ahead to develop the appropriate energy planning and development strategies andenergy saving policy measures is extremely urgent.But because of residential building’s lively individuality, factors affecting theenergy consumption of residential buildings relate not only with architecture itself, butalso more closely relate to the behavior of people’s living and awareness, developmentof economic and social, and the use of electrical appliances. Owing to its impact factors,it is difficult to establish a scientific and rational prediction model.This study reviews the research on the factors of the impact of building energyefficiency and building energy consumption at home and abroad firstly. On the basis ofthe literature study, questionnaire, open interviews and the Delphi method were used toprepare the survey questionnaire. The questionnaire involve five aspects which arearchitectural features, lifestyle, awareness of energy conservation, equipmentcharacteristics, up to29indicators having impacts on the urban residential buildingenergy consumption. After measuring the questionnaire through the analysis ofreliability, reliability, and semi-structured analysis, the final screening effectiveindependent subject was selected. Finally it was analyzed and discussed by experts toform the formal survey questionnaire with reliability and validity. Organization staffsampling typically1500families of Chongqing city for sampling survey,632validsamples from families was gotten after eliminating invalid samples. At the same time,the actual consumption data matched with investigated households was collected fromthe power supply departments. Based on comparing both objective data and subjective questionnaire, the research do the investigation of29factor which may have influenceof residential building energy consumption, and use social science statistical softwareSPSS17.0for data processing.Research shows that the characteristics and present situation energy consumptionof residential building of Chongqing is that,80%of the residents are2-4people,80%of household income between4000and80000Yuan,60%of households’ area between50and90m2, and the age of the buildings basic focus on being late than2000. Thenecessaries living appliances every household has such as air conditioning, computer,TV and so on is more than1. Air conditioning gives priority to cooling in summer, andheater gives priority to a higher temperature in winter, the overall energy savingconsciousness is good. Per unit m~2area of Chongqing residential building’s energyconsumption is26.4kWh. On the whole, the old building’s energy consumption shouldbe a little higher than the new ones’, while the average total energy consumption of themiddle residence is lower than in the bottom’s average total energy consumption andtop’s, the behavior of open air conditioning in summer having bigger influence of theenergy consumption, and the number of using air conditioning for the influence of theenergy consumption in summer is very significant. Overall,38%of the household’sindoor comfortable living evaluation of Chongqing in summer is cool, and60%ofhouseholds think it is hot and can be accepted basically. Only23%of households thinkit is warm in winter, and77%of households think indoor temperature in winter is verycold and can be accepted basically. That also shows the indoor living environment ofChongqing is not optimistic, and the living quality is not ideal.On the basis of investigation, do the related analysis and partial correlation analysisof the energy consumption of the residential building. From29variables of the affectenergy consumption in the investigation,12variable having significant linearrelationship were selected, which are the resident population, the construction area,building types, summer air conditioning cooling mode, summer refrigeration and airconditioning sets, winter heating air conditioning sets, heating in winter otherequipment sets, computers, television sets, the number of induction cooker sets, otherinformation equipment sets, using time of TV every day. According to the basic surveydata primary related variables and simple derived variables between years of simplelinear relationship energy consumption to determine6final simple relevant variableseffects the yearly energy consumption,6final simple relevant variables including theresident population, per capita consumption of building area, building type, the summer air-conditioning cooling method, number of refrigeration and air conditioning and computer tables, air conditioning, the total number of air-conditioning, refrigeration and the computer, the average daily use time of air-conditioning, refrigeration and the computer. Due to simple correlation analysis has certain limitation, mainly when calculating correlation coefficient it cannot eliminate the influence of other variables. Therefore, it is necessary to do partial correlation analysis of simple related variables of energy consumption. After excluding irrelevant variable, four factors with significant linear correlation was gotten finally, and they are the resident population, and per capita floor space, the total number of air-conditioning, refrigeration and the computer, and the cooling air-conditioning way in summer. The partial correlation coefficient of the energy consumption and the variables is as follows sorting from big to little:the resident population (0.307), per capita building area (0.290), the total number of air-conditioning, refrigeration and the computer (0.125), and the cooling air-conditioning way in summer (0.124).Based on the analysis and filter out the four factors above, multiple regression analysis prediction modelsY=-817.445+380.434X1+30.699X2+87.376X3+226.667X4was built. Different from the traditional multiple regression analysis modeling building energy consumption, the model do not bring into all factors that may affect building energy consumption variables, but excluding redundant variables of the model after correlation analysis and partial correlation analysis, which eliminates a total of line factors variables in the model so that it can better reflect the important influence factors and the impact of building energy consumption, making the model more reliable and accurate prediction. In order to compare and inspection with linear regression model, meanwhile, the higher fitting precision nonlinear regression model but with more complex calculation also be chosen. This article use the L—M(Levenberg—Marquardt) model to identify the parameter, and do the multiple regression analysis, then ascertain Index nonlinear function fitting regression model of residential building energy consumption of Chongqing, polynomial function modely=-10468.60+7148.6x10.14+1556.7x20.27+96x21.48+6.48x42.15and index function model y=3706.15-3471.9e-0.32X1-3181.5e-0.028x2+509.4e0.238x3+192.76e0.153x4Finally, comparing2008-2009Chongqing cities actual residential building energy consumption data with the data forecasted by using the linear and nonlinear regression model, resultshows that model fitting data and practical statistical data conformity degree is above94%, and means model fitting degree is better.After obtaining the residential building energy consumption factor model ofChongqing, combined with the economic, social, demographic situation anddevelopment trend of Chongqing to conduct scenario analysis on the base of energyconsumption influencing factors in the "12th Five-Year" period,(including the numberof urban households; the structure of urban households; value distribution of factorsaffecting energy consumption various types of households, etc.). According to theresults of analysis of Chongqing urban residents established distribution matrix and theenergy consumption factors distribution matrix, energy consumption was predicted. Thetotal energy consumption forecasting results of Chongqing urban residential building is414527.7kWh in2012and507214.7kWh in2015.Combined with the actual situation of Chongqing city and the residents’ acceptabledegree, authors put forward the sustainable development of the city for energy plan,establishing city residential building energy consumption management system, perfectthe residents energy consumption of low carbon based on guide measures and improvethe residential building based on low carbon energy saving excitation mechanism, andprovide a series of building energy efficiency measures and suggestions to solve theenergy contradiction of Chongqing.