| With the acceleration of China’s urbanization process,the uncertain risks faced by cities are becoming more and more diversified and complicated,and it is urgent to improve the resilience of cities in order to realize their sustainable development.Therefore,we select 30 indicators from five aspects of economy,society,population,ecology and infrastructure to construct a comprehensive urban resilience evaluation system,and take110 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone(the most potential inland river economic zone in China)as the research objects.The trend surface analysis,standard deviation ellipse,spatial autocorrelation and geographic detector are used to analyze the spatial differentiation pattern of urban resilience and its driving factors.The specific conclusions are as follows:(1)On the whole,the urban resilience of the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows a slow upward trend,with the average value of urban resilience rising from 0.2442 in 2005 to 0.2560 in 2018.However,the proportion of cities whose urban resilience assessment values are greater than the average in the four years did not exceed 37%.Thus,the resilience of overall regional maintains at a low level.During the study period,the difference in resilience level between cities gradually narrowed,and the regional resilience tended to balance.The resilience of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has always shown the spatial distribution pattern of "high in the east and low in the west,and the cities along the Yangtze River have higher resilience than the surrounding cities".The spatial distribution of urban resilience has an obvious "northeast-southwest" distribution direction,and the center of gravity of resilience tends to shift to the southwest.(2)During the study period,the development of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration and central Guizhou urban agglomeration in the upstream region is stronger than that of central Yunnan urban agglomeration.The spatial distribution direction of urban resilience is similar with the whole Yangtze River Economic Belt,and the center of urban resilience moved to the northeast.In the middle reaches,the urban resilience presents a spatial distribution pattern from northwest to southeast.The balanced development of urban resilience in Hunan Province and Jiangxi Province is due to Hubei Province,and the center of urban resilience moves slowly to the south.The middle and high resilience cities in the lower reaches are mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,and the northern part of Anhui Province is the urban resilience depression area.The urban resilience space in the lower reaches shows the spatial distribution direction of "Northwest Southeast",and the urban resilience center of gravity moves to the northwest.(3)From the perspective of spatial correlation of urban resilience,the urban resilience of the Yangtze River Economic Zone shows a significant positive correlation in each year,but the Moran’s I index fluctuated from 0.51 in 2005 to 0.41 in 2018,reducing the degree of urban resilience agglomeration.High-high concentration and low-low concentration are the main spatial correlation modes,among which high-high concentration is distributed in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,low-low concentration is distributed in the central and western parts of the Yangtze River Economic Zone,high-low concentration is mainly in the western provincial capital cities,and low-high concentration is mainly distributed in the peripheral areas of the Yangtze River Delta.(4)From the factor detection results,the spatial differentiation of urban resilience in the whole region is mainly controlled by per capita GDP,total retail sales of consumer goods per capita and collection of books in public libraries per 100 people,among which the detection value of per capita GDP is always above 0.8,which can explain more than80% of the spatial differentiation of urban resilience.From 2005 to 2018,the percentage of expenditure on science and technology and the percentage of expenditure on education showed the most obvious increase,and the impact on urban resilience increased year by year.The spatial differentiation of urban resilience in the upstream region was mainly affected by factors such as residents’ deposits,infrastructure,medical care and higher education level in the early stage,and then changed to be mainly driven by economy in the later stage.The proportion of science and technology expenditure,the actual use of foreign capital in the current year and the proportion of education expenditure have significantly increased their explanatory power than the spatial differentiation of urban resilience in the region.For the middle reaches,the per capita GDP,average wages and higher education level are the leading factors of the spatial differentiation of urban resilience.Factors such as the proportion of science and technology expenditure,the proportion of the secondary and tertiary industries,the actual amount of foreign capital used in the current year and the proportion of education expenditure have a significant upward trend in explaining the urban resilience.For the downstream regions,factors such as residents’ consumption ability,urban learning atmosphere and residents’ savings balance are the main driving factors for the spatial differentiation of urban resilience.Factors such as the proportion of science and technology expenditure,industrial sulfur dioxide emissions of 10,000 yuan of GDP and per capita urban road area have increased their explanatory power for the spatial differentiation of urban resilience in the region year by year.(5)From the results of interaction detection,any two factors are greater than the single factor in explaining the spatial differentiation of urban resilience after interaction.During the study period,no nonlinear weakening and independent interaction patterns were reported.The interaction mode and intensity are different in different regions in different years.Whether from the whole or from the upper,middle and lower reaches,the interpretation degree of factor detection in the economic system decreases with the passage of time,but the interpretation degree of urban resilience spatial differentiation is significantly improved after interaction with other factors.The spatial differentiation of urban resilience is a complex social phenomenon,which is formed by the joint action of many factors. |
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