Risk Identification And Evaluation In The Planning And Design Stage Of Tourism Real Estate Project

With the gradual upgrade of the domestic regulatory policies and the booming development of the tourism industry,real estate companies have sought to transform and upgrade in order to adapt to the new situation.Tourism real estate,a new development model that combines the two,has emerged,and the emergence and development of new things will inevitably bring many potential development risks.In this context,this paper focuses on the planning and design stage,which plays a key role in the project,to conduct risk identification and evaluation research.Based on the above research purposes,this paper mainly studies the following four aspects:(1)The definition and characteristics of tourism real estate,the connotation and importance of management in the planning and design stage are summarized and analyzed.At the same time,by studying the concepts,advantages and disadvantages and scope of application of commonly used risk identification and evaluation methods,select the risk identification and evaluation methods suitable for this research.Finally,the commonly used risk control countermeasures are analyzed.(2)Through literature analysis method combined with own work experience,take actual tourism real estate project H as an example,identify the risk factors as comprehensively as possible,and classify them according to the source of risk.Delphi method is used to invite experts to screen and supplement the initially identified risks,and finally five risk sources and a total of 30 risk factors were identified.(3)In the research of risk assessment,firstly,based on the results of risk identification,the questionnaire is compiled to collect the research data.Through the combination of CRITIC method and entropy method,risk matrix method and set pair analysis method are used to calculate risk levels of risk factors,risk sources and risk target and their connection to each risk level.It is found that the policy risk source has the highest degree of connection with the higher risk level,the overall risk level of the planning and design stage of tourism real estate project is medium and has a certain trend towards higher risk levels.(4)Give corresponding risk control countermeasures based on the theoretical analysis of risk control countermeasures,conclusions of risk identification and evaluation.And give relevant information of risk management measures from four aspects: overall planning and design positioning,planning and design department system,human resource system,and design unit cooperation.The research conclusions of this article can provide theoretical basis and data for future research scholars,and also provide some references for enterprises to control the development risk of such projects.