| Land use change is an important research content of global environmental change and sustainable development,and it is also a barometer of the effects of human activities on land system in time and space scale.In recent years,with the increasing demand of economic and social development for land space,great changes have taken place in the way of land development and utilization.Unreasonable land use and blind land investment have caused a series of problems.Therefore,it is very urgent to master the temporal and spatial evolution law and future development trend of land use to overcome the blindness and uncertainty of land use and management decision and guide the rational use of land resources.Lueyang County is a county in Qinba Mountain area with various land use types.The vegetation coverage is high,but the dominant land type is single,the degree of concentration is low,and the ecological environment is sensitive and fragile.By revealing the temporal and spatial evolution of land use and simulating the dynamic changes of land use in the future,we can provide reference and basis for rational land use and optimization of spatial layout,and promote the green and sustainable development of county.From the perspectives of quantity,speed and degree,this paper reveals the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use in Lueyang County from 2009 to 2019,selects10 factors that affect land use change in Lueyang County by using Logistic model,and predicts the demand quantity of various localities in Lueyang County in 2024 and 2029 by using Markov chain principle.On this basis,FLUS model was used to simulate the land use change and spatial distribution of Lueyang County under the red line constraint scenarios of natural development and ecological protection in 2024 and 2029,respectively.According to the simulation results,some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward for the future land use of Lueyang County.Through research,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)During 2009-2019,Lueyang County has rich land use structure,single dominant type,high land cover,moderate change of land type,no significant change of pattern,moderate land development and utilization,reasonable land use and high ecological environment quality.(2)FLUS model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use change in 2014 and 2019.After checking,the overall accuracy of the simulation results in the two periods was 94.23% and 89.85%,and Kappa coefficients were 0.7765 and 0.7913,respectively.The simulation results were in good agreement with the actual results,and the accuracy was reliable.The model and parameter settings could be used to simulate the spatial distribution of future land use change at county level.(3)FLUS model is used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use change in Lueyang County in 2024 and 2029 under the constraint of natural development and ecological protection red line.Analysis of the simulation results shows that the change of local categories tends to be flat obviously under the constraint of ecological protection red line,and the change amount and amplitude of local categories are greatly reduced compared with the natural development scenario in the same period.The red line of ecological protection will effectively protect the cultivated land area,increase the proportion of ecological functional land such as forest land and water area,slow down the expansion trend of construction land,and play a vital role in adjusting the land use change and spatial pattern of Lueyang County. |
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