Economic Evaluation Of Wind Power Investment Project Based On Monte Carlo Simulation

General Secretary Xi pointed out in the report of the 19 th CPC National Congress that we should promote green development,and one of the essentials of promoting green development is to promote the development of clean energy and increase the proportion of renewable energy in regional energy supply.Wind power,as a typical representative of renewable energy,plays an indispensable role in curbing greenhouse gas emissions,solving power supply problems in remote areas,alleviating power supply shortages and optimizing energy structure.Although the installed capacity of wind power in China is increasing year by year,the investment of wind power relies on government subsidies to a high degree,and problems such as the high "wind abandonment rate" have attracted extensive attention from all sectors of society.First of all,this paper systematically summarizes the research related to economic evaluation and wind power investment projects.Secondly,it clarifies the key concepts involved in the article,and sorts out the economic evaluation methods.Thirdly,it introduces the general situation of China’s wind power investment project from the current situation of China’s wind power development,the prospect of China’s wind power and the characteristics of wind power investment project.Finally,an evaluation system is constructed based on the discounted cash flow model based on Monte Carlo simulation and the actual cases of wind farms.From the perspective of project investment decision,wind power generation is the trend of The Times.The case wind farm can achieve better economic benefits;The mode of "wind power + energy storage" provides an economical and feasible solution to the problem of "wind abandoning".In terms of theoretical significance,it extends the field of economic evaluation and innovates the method of economic evaluation.Throughout the existing literature,few scholars have discussed the investment decision of the project of "wind power + energy storage" mode,which is pioneering to a certain extent.In addition,the discount cash flow model based on Monte Carlo simulation takes into account the advantages of the discount flow method and the uncertainty analysis method,so it is innovative to some extent.In terms of practical value,on the one hand,this paper can provide useful decision-making information for potential investors,and on the other hand,it can provide reference for the formulation of relevant subsidy policies.