| In recent years,high-speed railway of our country has been developed rapidly.With its advantages of high speed,low cost,high safety and comfort,high-speed railway has become the first choice for passengers.The railway department continues to increase the number of EMU trains to meet the increasing demand for passenger transportation,which puts forward higher requirements for the safe and stable operation of high-speed railway.The EMU Depot is responsible for the inspection,maintenance,and storage of EMU trains.With the continuous increase in the number of EMU trains,the problem of insufficient carrying capacity for the EMU Depot has become more and more serious.This paper summarizes the theories about the carrying capacity of the EMU Depot,referring to the method of calulating the carrying capacity of railway station,and proposes the calculation method of carrying capacity of the EMU Depot.And it also constructs a busyness degree model to express the busyness degree of different equipment in the production process.Firstly,this paper introduces the research methods of carrying capacity of railway station and the EMU Depot in detail.It summarizes the advantages of different methods and the main problems at present,and determines the research methods and research content,as well.Secondly,this paper analyzes the equipment configuration of the EMU Depot,and summarizes the technical operation process and characteristics of the EMU trains in the EMU Depot.After that,summarizing the factors which affect the carrying capacity of the EMU Depot,and a theoretical foundation for the calculation of carrying capacity is laid.Furthermore,according to the contents and characteristics of the operation organization and the timeliness of the operation organization of the EMU Depot,the paper proposes a method to calculate carrying capacity of the EMU Depot.Using gray system theory to construct a gray multi-attribute decision-making model with completely unknown weight information to determine the value of the leisure coefficient.Then,the paper constructs a model of busyness degree of working to quantify the busyness degree of working in the throat area in different periods of time.The Bayesian statistical theory is introduced to analyze the uncertainty of the operation of the EMU trains in the EMU Depot,and a method of expressing the carrying capacity of the EMU Depot is proposed.Finally,taking the XX EMU Depot as an example to calculate the throat carrying capacity and the storage yard carrying capacity during each operation period.By comparing and analyzing the total time occupied by the equipment in the EMU Depot and the calculation index of the busyness degree of each equipment,the feasibility of the busyness degree model is verified.It also calculates and analyzes the unbalanced degree of equipment occupancy in the EMU Depot.By using the Bayesian section estimation method,the numerical section of the carrying capacity of the XX EMU Depot is calculated. |