| Since the Industrial Revolution,the global carbon dioxide concentration has risen sharply.Climate change has broken the water and heat balance within the regions,seriously affected the reproduction,growth and distribution of species,and greatly challenged global sustainable development and biodiversity.Changes in habitat and migration patterns caused by climate change will threaten the survival and growth of many species and make them face the risk of population distribution changes or even extinction.In light of global climate change,studying the response of species to climate change to develop effective biodiversity conservation strategies has become an important issue for governments,the public,and scientists,This study focuses on Pinus taiwanensis,combining its distribution point data and habitat factor data(climate,terrain,and soil factors),to construct a distribution model based on Maximum Entropy(Max Ent).The research investigated the combined effects of climate,terrain,soil,and other factors on the distribution of Pinus taiwanensis and quantified the influence degree and direction to determine the driving factors affecting the distribution of Pinus taiwanensis.Futhermore,the research analyzed the potential suitable areas for Pinus taiwanensis under current climate conditions,the potential suitable areas for under future climate scenarios based on single Global Climate Models(GCM),and the potential suitable areas under future climate scenarios based on an integrated multi-GCMs approach,thus evaluating its suitability.The main results of this study are as follows:(1)Maxent could predictsd the distribution of Pinus taiwanensis with extremely high accuracy(AUC value was 0.970,ROC curve was close to point(0,1)and deviated from 45-degree diagonal),indicateing that the Max Ent could identify and simulate the relationship between distribution of Pinus taiwanensis and climate factors.(2)The crucial factors affecting the distribution of Pinus taiwanensis are elevation,precipitation in the driest quarter(bio17),daily mean value of diurnal temperature difference(bio2),precipitation in the warmest quarter(bio18)and annual mean temperature(bio1).The suitable elevation range of Pinus taiwanensis is 483-1085 m.The optimal range of precipitation in the driest quarter is 154-646 mm.The optimal range of diurnal mean temperature difference is 3.6-7.3℃.The optimal range of precipitation in the warmest quarter is 404-2104 mm.The suitable range for annual average temperature is 11.4-16.2℃.the primary The key factors affecting the distribution of Pinus taiwanensis are rainfall and altitude,as with as temperature and soil.(3)Under current climate conditions,Pinus taiwanensis is mainly concentrated in the subtropical region of southeastern China.The total suitable area of Pinus taiwanensis is about 77.49×10~4km~2,accounting for 8.1%of our national territory.The area of high suitability is about 1.86×10~4km~2.The high suitable areas are mainly distributed in Yushan Mountain in Taiwan Province,Huangshan Mountain and Dabie Mountain in Anhui Province,Tianmu Mountain in Zhejiang Province,Daiyun Mountain in Fujian Province,Lushan Mountain in Jiangxi Province and their adjacent areas.Additionally,there are also some high suitable areas for Pinus taiwanensis near Mufu Mountain in Hunan Province.(4)Under five individual GCMs and one multi-GCMs integrated,the prediction of potential suitable areas of Pinus taiwanensis shows that the high suitable areas in eastern China will be further reduced.The changing trend of the suitable areas of Pinus taiwanensis under the SSP5-8.5 scenario is roughly the same as that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario.The suitability in some regions such as Gansu and Shaanxi were improved,while the high suitable areas in Anhui,Jiangxi and Zhejiang were reduced.(5)Under five individual GCMs and one multi-GCMs integrated,the potential distribution areas of each suitability level of Pinus taiwanensis in China changed greatly compared with the current situation,and the high,medium and low suitable areas all showed a decreasing trend.In the 2050s and 2070s,the area of each suitability level of Pinus taiwanensis will generally decrease with the increase of carbon emission levels.(6)In the same period and under different climate scenarios in five individual GCMs,the centroid position of the potential suitable area for Pinus taiwanensis moved to the north first and then to the southeast with the increase of climate scenario level.In the same period and under different climate scenarios in the integrated multi-GCMs,the centroid position of the potential suitable area for Pinus taiwanensis moved to the northwest first and then to the southeast with the increase of climate scenario level. |
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